Daily Market Overview - April 01, 2026

Wednesday in the financial markets is rich with key data that could significantly impact today's trading. At 14:15 (Warsaw time), we await the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report, which is a preliminary indicator of Friday's NFP data, with forecasts indicating a drop from 63K to 41K. Shortly after, at 14:30 (Warsaw time), retail sales and core sales results in the US will be released, where an increase of 0.5% and 0.3% is expected, respectively. The highlight of the day will be the publication of the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 16:00 (Warsaw time), with a forecasted slight decline to 52.3 from the previous 52.4.

In the context of this week, the market remains under the influence of extreme fear, as confirmed by low values of the Fear & Greed Index. Yesterday's data on Canadian GDP, which turned out to be slightly better than expected, failed to alleviate the pessimism. Today's data is therefore particularly significant, especially since Monday's speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not provide clear guidance on future monetary policy.

Traders should prepare for potential volatility, especially in the afternoon hours, when data from the USA will be released. Results better than expected may temporarily ease investors' concerns; however, significant deviations from forecasts, particularly in the case of the ADP or ISM reports, could trigger strong market reactions. Today's session is crucial to assess whether the current fear sentiment will be maintained or if there will be an opportunity for improvement.

The current market sentiment continues to oscillate in the zone of extreme fear, indicating a dominance of pessimism among investors. Yesterday's data from Canada, although slightly better than forecasts, failed to reverse this trend. Today's releases from the USA, particularly ADP and ISM, will be crucial for the further direction of the markets. Results significantly better than expectations could provide temporary relief, but the risk of negative surprises remains high.