Daily Market Overview - April 09, 2026

This Thursday brings two key macroeconomic reports from the USA to the financial markets, which may significantly impact today's session volatility. At 14:30 (Warsaw time), data on Final GDP and the Core PCE Price Index will be released. Both indicators have forecasts of 0.7% and 0.4% respectively, suggesting that market expectations are stable, but any deviation from the forecasts could trigger a reaction from investors.

This week, the markets have been influenced by service sector data, which turned out worse than expected. The ISM Services PMI came in at 54.0, compared to the anticipated 54.8, introducing greater uncertainty regarding the state of the U.S. economy, which in turn affected investor caution. Today's GDP and Core PCE reports continue this narrative and may provide additional insights into the future direction of monetary policy, especially in light of the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Traders should pay special attention to the data release at 14:30 (Warsaw time), as a result differing from forecasts could impact the volatility of the US dollar and instruments related to Fed policy. Additionally, due to the increase in market sentiment from 22 to 31 points, a potential positive surprise in the data could further improve market moods. It is crucial to remain vigilant during this release, as it may set the direction for the markets in the coming days.

The current sentiment in the markets indicates fear, although noticeably decreasing, which may be a result of stabilizing expectations regarding monetary policy. The rise in the fear index by 18 points in recent weeks suggests that the markets are slowly stabilizing, although they remain cautious. Today's macroeconomic data could be a catalyst for further optimism if the results meet or exceed forecasts. Otherwise, they may deepen existing concerns and influence further caution among investors.