Daily Market Overview - April 21, 2026

Tuesday morning brought the first excitement related to the release of New Zealand's CPI for the first quarter of 2026, which stood at 0.9%, exceeding market expectations of 0.8%. This indicates stronger-than-expected inflationary pressures in New Zealand, which may influence expectations regarding the future monetary policy of the central bank. For traders, this means a possible strengthening of the New Zealand dollar in the short term, considering the increasing likelihood of interest rate hikes.

Today remains tense due to upcoming releases from the British and American markets. At 08:00 (Warsaw time), we will learn about the change in the number of unemployment benefit claims in the UK (Claimant Count Change), where the market expects a decrease to 22.6 thousand. This is an important indicator for pound traders who will be looking for signals regarding the state of the British labor market ahead of tomorrow's CPI data. In the afternoon, attention will shift to American retail sales data, both overall and core, at 14:30 (Warsaw time). Forecasts indicate a solid increase of 1.4% in both cases, which would confirm the strength of consumption in the USA. An important event will also be the testimony of the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at 16:00 (Warsaw time), which may provide insights into future Fed actions.

Traders should be particularly alert to volatility during the data releases at 08:00 (Warsaw time) and 14:30 (Warsaw time), as they may significantly impact the quotes of the pound and the dollar. These events align with our narrative from the beginning of the week, where we emphasized the importance of inflation and retail sales data. Today's releases may influence further increases in market sentiment, which is already indicating greed, potentially increasing investors' risk appetite.

Market sentiment continues to rise, as evidenced by the Fear & Greed index, which currently stands at 70, indicating greed. This means that investors are more inclined to take risks, which could translate into gains in the stock and commodity markets. Furthermore, expectations regarding the Fed's future moves on interest rates remain stable at 3.50-3.75%, which further supports the optimistic mood. However, today's data from the U.S. may bring new information that could impact these expectations, especially if retail sales surprise in either direction.