Thursday morning promises to be extremely exciting for traders, as at 12:30 (Warsaw time) we will receive key data from the U.S. labor market. The focus is on reports regarding average hourly earnings, the unemployment rate, and changes in non-farm employment (Non-Farm Employment Change). Forecasts for these data suggest a continuation of the current trend from previous months, which may indicate stabilization in the labor market - the projected values are 0.3% for earnings and 4.3% for the unemployment rate. However, the greatest tension arises from the forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change, which predicts a significant slowdown in job growth to 114,000.
In the context of recent days, the markets are particularly sensitive to data from the U.S., following yesterday's disappointing ISM Manufacturing PMI results, which were worse than expected. This has caused uncertainty regarding the state of the U.S. economy. Furthermore, the beginning of the week was marked by stabilization, but with a clear emphasis on investor caution, who are reacting to the changing market sentiment. The current level of fear, although slightly decreased, remains significant, which increases the risk of sharp movements in response to today's data.
Traders should prepare for high volatility after 12:30 (Warsaw time) when the U.S. labor market data will be released. Results better than forecasts could strengthen the dollar and trigger a correction in the stock markets, while worse results may heighten concerns about an economic slowdown, potentially weakening the dollar and reducing risk appetite. It is important to monitor the results in real-time and respond appropriately to the situation, keeping in mind the current market sentiment.
