Daily Market Overview - June 25, 2026

Thursday morning brought some surprises from Australia. The employment change data turned out to be significantly better than expected, with an increase of 40,300 jobs, while the forecast was 31,200. This positive surprise indicates a revival in the Australian labor market, which may support the local currency. Furthermore, the unemployment rate remained at 4.4%, in line with forecasts, demonstrating stability in this sector.

Today's data continues the weekly observations regarding inflation and employment, which began with the inflation reports from Canada and Australia. In light of the recent disappointments in Australian inflation, today's data may inspire optimism. Meanwhile, another key set of data is on the horizon – at 12:30 (Warsaw time) we will learn the values of the U.S. Core PCE Price Index and Final GDP. Forecasts for Core PCE anticipate a 0.3% m/m increase, which will be significant in the context of inflation expectations.

This afternoon may bring significant volatility to the markets, especially around the release of U.S. data at 12:30 (Warsaw time). The Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, could influence expectations regarding future interest rate moves. In the event of a surprise in GDP data, we may expect a reaction from the dollar market. Traders should be prepared for potential fluctuations, especially if the values deviate from forecasts.

Market sentiment continues to oscillate around fear, as reflected in the Fear & Greed Index, which stands at 26/100. This is a continuation of the downward trend observed over the past few weeks, indicating increasing caution among investors. In light of today's data from Australia and the anticipated figures from the USA, investors may be particularly sensitive to any signals regarding inflation and economic growth. Markets remain vigilant, preparing for potential changes in monetary policy, especially in the context of the upcoming FOMC meeting.