Daily Market Overview - March 17, 2026

Today, Tuesday, is a day full of expectations for traders, especially due to the upcoming RBA interest rate decision. At 4:30 (Warsaw time), we will learn the decision regarding the Cash Rate, where forecasts indicate an increase from 3.85% to 4.10%. This hike, if it occurs, could significantly impact the value of the Australian dollar, so investors will also closely monitor the RBA Rate Statement and the subsequent press conference at 5:30 (Warsaw time), which may provide additional insights into Australia's future monetary policy.

In the context of this week, Monday's inflation data from Canada came in slightly below forecasts, which may impact expectations regarding the Bank of Canada's policy, thereby tightening the global monetary policy context. Yesterday's CPI m/m and Median CPI y/y results were lower than expected, suggesting that inflationary pressure may be easing, which is a positive signal for the Canadian dollar market, but also for global risk asset sentiment.

Today's session may be particularly volatile in the morning hours due to publications from Australia. Traders should pay close attention to interest rate decisions and accompanying statements that may impact the Australian dollar. Monitoring the RBA press conference at 5:30 (Warsaw time) will be crucial for understanding future directions of monetary policy in the region. Overall, investors should be prepared for increased volatility during these hours.

The current market sentiment remains in the extreme fear zone, with the index at 23/100. This indicates ongoing uncertainty among investors, which is understandable in the context of upcoming monetary policy decisions. Although the fear index has slightly improved from 19/100, it still reflects caution in the markets. Traders should be aware that such an environment can lead to sudden price movements, especially in the case of unexpected results from today's releases.