This Thursday brings anticipation for two key reports that could significantly impact the financial markets. At 11:30 (Warsaw time), we will receive data on the UK GDP m/m, with the forecast indicating a decline of 0.2%, compared to the previous increase of 0.5%. This data is particularly important in the context of recent economic concerns related to Brexit and potential repercussions for the UK economy. Another key moment will be the publication at 18:00 (Warsaw time) of the US retail sales data. Both Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales m/m are forecasted at 0.6%, which could provide insights into the condition of American consumers, especially following the recent inflation data.
In the past few days of the week, the markets have been dominated by inflation data from the USA. Yesterday, we received the PPI results, which affected expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy. Market sentiment remains at a level indicating greed, signaling investors' willingness to take risks. In this context, today's retail sales data may test this optimism, especially if the results deviate from forecasts. It is also worth noting the data from the UK, which may influence the pound's exchange rate, particularly in light of recent political tensions.
For traders, a key task today will be closely monitoring the releases at 11:30 (Warsaw time) and 18:00 (Warsaw time), which could introduce significant volatility in the markets. Results worse than forecasts may weaken the pound and the dollar, while better data could strengthen these currencies. It is important to pay attention to the market's reaction to U.S. retail sales, which is crucial for assessing consumer purchasing power and, consequently, the future policy of the Fed.
