Financial markets: Changes in interest rates and geopolitics in the headlines

Today's data on initial unemployment claims in the USA amounted to 226 thousand, which was slightly above the expected level of 225 thousand but below the previous level of 230 thousand. These results indicate stabilization in the labor market, which may influence the Fed's decisions regarding further monetary policy. Currently, expectations for interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting indicate they will remain at 3.50-3.75% with a probability of 65.8%. However, 34.2% of the market expects a possible increase to the level of 3.75-4.00%. Such data is crucial for forecasting inflation and future Fed decisions, which directly impacts investor sentiment.

In the United Kingdom, the number of unemployed increased by 31.2 thousand compared to the forecasted 25.8 thousand. Despite this, the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.9% from 5%. These changes indicate some instability in the labor market, but also an improvement compared to earlier forecasts. Traders expect that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by 35 basis points over the year. Although the situation in the labor market is mixed, such actions may be necessary to address rising inflation and maintain financial stability.

Former US President Donald Trump announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Iran. Although the details of the agreement have not yet been disclosed, such news could have far-reaching effects on US foreign policy and energy markets. Iran is a key player in the oil market, and an improvement in relations with the US could influence commodity prices and stability in the Middle East region. Such moves could also impact global supply chains and investment decisions.

New Zealand recorded a significant increase in GDP expenditures on a quarterly basis of 1.0%, which is well above the previous 0.1%. Such a jump indicates economic recovery and may attract investors interested in the Asia-Pacific region. Economic growth in New Zealand may influence decisions regarding interest rates and the sentiments of international investors looking for portfolio diversification opportunities.

Tomorrow will bring further analyses of the impact of macroeconomic data on central bank decisions, especially in the context of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Investors will also monitor the geopolitical situation, particularly regarding the new USA-Iran agreement. It is also worth paying attention to potential reactions of Asian markets to data from New Zealand.