Geopolitical tensions and economic data shape the markets.

Expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting indicate stability in interest rates within the range of 3.50-3.75%. Analysts assign a probability of 99.5% to this scenario. Only a 0.5% chance is attributed to a potential increase in rates to the range of 3.75-4.00%. Such forecasts suggest that the Fed is unlikely to change the current course of monetary policy, which may stabilize investor sentiment in the American market. The Fear & Greed Index, which has risen to a level of 68/100, indicates increasing greed among investors, which may be associated with expectations of further increases in stock prices.

Middle Eastern tensions, especially between the USA and Iran, have once again come to the forefront. President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran for 3-5 days, creating an opportunity for potential diplomatic talks. However, Iran has still not made a decision regarding negotiations, which may impact uncertainty in the oil markets. At the same time, the EIA report showed an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 1.925 million barrels, while analysts expected a decrease of 2 million. This surplus may exert pressure to lower oil prices, especially in the context of geopolitical tensions.

Data from Japan regarding imports and the trade balance has surprised analysts. Imports rose by 10.9% year on year, significantly exceeding the forecast of 7%. Nevertheless, the trade balance amounted to 667 billion yen, which was below analysts' expectations (1,058.2 billion yen). In the United Kingdom, the core CPI inflation stood at 3.1%, slightly below the forecasted 3.2%, which may suggest that inflationary pressure is slowly easing. This macroeconomic data may influence investment decisions regarding Asian and European markets, especially in the context of monetary policy.

Tomorrow's events may be dominated by the continuation of discussions regarding the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the impact of unexpected economic data on the markets. Investors should pay attention to any new statements from the USA and Iran that may affect oil prices. At the same time, it is worth observing market reactions to macroeconomic data from Japan and the United Kingdom, which may shape future monetary policy decisions.