Geopolitical uncertainty and Fed decisions shape the markets.

In the context of expectations regarding future Fed decisions, investors remain divided. The current interest rate is 3.50-3.75%, and the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 29, 2026. Market expectations indicate a 61.5% chance of maintaining rates in the current range, while 38.5% of investors anticipate an increase to 3.75-4.00%. None of the analyses suggest a decrease in interest rates. Such uncertainty affects market sentiment, as confirmed by the fear and greed index at 37/100, indicating a predominance of fear among investors. Fed decisions will be crucial for the further shaping of monetary policy and for the stability of financial markets.

Donald Trump's statements regarding Iran's proxy actions in Lebanon and potential US attacks on Iran are increasing geopolitical tensions. Trump has categorically demanded an end to such actions, threatening a resumption of military strikes. Such statements can influence energy markets, leading to rising oil prices, which in turn can affect inflation and central bank decisions. Geopolitical uncertainty is one of the factors that can destabilize financial markets, and any escalation of the situation can lead to rapid changes in the markets.

Another important piece of information is the expected resignation of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer next Monday. According to an Observer report, Starmer is set to present his planned departure in an orderly manner. Such changes in the British government may impact the political stability of the country and future relations with the European Union, which in turn could affect the British pound and European financial markets. Investors will be closely monitoring the situation for clues regarding the future economic policies of the United Kingdom.

In the coming days, it will be crucial to observe the further development of the geopolitical situation related to Iran and expectations regarding interest rates in the USA. Additionally, political changes in the United Kingdom may impact European financial markets. Investors should be prepared for potential fluctuations in the markets due to these events.