Markets in the face of geopolitical turmoil and economic slowdown

Interest rates in the USA remain in the range of 3.50-3.75%, and the upcoming FOMC meeting, scheduled for June 17, does not bring expectations of changes. As much as 98.2% of the market expects that the Fed will maintain the current level of interest rates. This state of affairs reflects the stability of monetary policy in the face of turmoil, which may attract investors seeking safety in the US dollar.

International Situation

On the international stage, the situation remains tense. The Iranian armed forces announced the end of military operations against Israel, although they warned of the possibility of harsher attacks if Israel resumes actions against Lebanon. Such statements may increase uncertainty in the Middle East, which in turn affects oil prices and other assets linked to the region. Additionally, former US President Donald Trump commented that the blockade will remain in effect until an 'ultimate agreement' is reached, indicating prolonged tensions related to unresolved conflicts.

Weak data from Germany further burdened the European industrial sector. Industrial orders in Germany fell by 3.8% month-on-month, while forecasts indicated a smaller decline of 2%. In the previous period, there was an increase of 5%. Such results suggest a possible slowdown in the largest economy of the eurozone, which may impact future decisions of the European Central Bank regarding monetary policy.

Information that Google and NVIDIA are considering Intel as a backup chip manufacturer may have significant implications for the technology sector. In the face of global supply chain disruptions, diversifying production sources is becoming crucial for tech companies. Such decisions could impact stock valuations in the semiconductor sector, which is already struggling with high demand and production constraints.

In the coming days, investors should pay particular attention to the development of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and further economic data from Europe that may influence market sentiment. It will also be important to monitor any statements and decisions related to Fed monetary policy, which may be crucial for the formation of the dollar's exchange rate and global financial markets.