Markets on edge before the Fed's decision, changes in US policy towards Iran.

The upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will take place on June 17, remains in the spotlight for investors. Current interest rates in the USA are at 3.50-3.75%, and the market expects with almost complete certainty (98.6%) that they will be maintained at this level. The Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, has shifted slightly towards fear, from a level of 39 to 42. This is a signal that investors are exercising caution in the face of a lack of clear signals regarding future monetary policy in the USA. Weaker data on industrial production, which increased by only 0.1% month-on-month, significantly below the forecast of 0.3%, may also influence the Fed's decisions.

Oil reserves in the USA have fallen to the lowest level in 43 years, as a result of the Trump administration's decision to utilize them to lower gas prices. This situation may impact global oil prices, especially in the context of recent geopolitical tensions. Additionally, President Trump announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz without fees, which could improve oil flow and stabilize commodity prices. These actions aim to alleviate price pressure in commodity markets and support the US economy.

The conclusion of negotiations and the signing of the agreement with Iran is another key step by the US administration towards stabilizing the situation in the Middle East. As confirmed by President Trump on the Truth Social platform and the Wall Street Journal, the agreement has been finalized. According to officials' statements, Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon is not a condition of the agreement. This decision may ease tensions in the region and affect oil prices, especially in the context of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

In the coming days, investors should focus on the FOMC meeting and the interest rate decision, which may affect global financial markets. It is also worth observing the market's reactions to changes in U.S. energy policy and the effects of the new agreement with Iran, which may have long-term implications for geopolitical stability and commodity prices.