The geopolitical situation and lack of changes in monetary policy are key for the markets.
The Fed maintains interest rates in the range of 3.50-3.75%, and market expectations indicate no changes at least until the end of the year. Traders are convinced that the Fed will not decide on increases or decreases, which is reflected in nearly 100% certainty of maintaining the current levels of interest rates. The lack of growth in factory orders in the USA, which amounted to 0.0% against a forecast of -0.2%, supports these predictions. The stability of monetary policy is crucial in the face of uncertainty in international markets.
The geopolitical situation is focused on talks between the United States and Iran. The Iranian delegation, led by the Speaker of Parliament Ghalibaf, arrived in Islamabad ahead of peace talks with the US. Iran is setting conditions, such as a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of frozen Iranian assets, as essential to start negotiations. President Trump has announced the possibility of using military force if Iran does not meet these conditions. These events may impact oil prices and stability in the Middle East, which is crucial for global markets.
Despite the lack of growth in factory orders in the USA, which remained at 0.0% in March, economic sentiment has not significantly worsened. This situation may suggest stabilization after periods of volatility and uncertainty. Decisions regarding the extension of the ban on the sale of Russian oil by the United States may affect the further development of the situation in the commodities market. These moves are part of a broader strategy to mitigate the effects of sanctions and ensure stability in the energy market.
Tomorrow may bring new information regarding the USA-Iran talks, which could significantly impact the commodity markets and overall geopolitical stability. Investors should also pay attention to any new economic data from the USA that may influence expectations regarding Fed monetary policy.
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