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Morning market review - Saturday, July 4, 2026

Technical analyses of 2 instruments with options data

Kacper MrukJuly 4, 2026Updated: July 4, 20261 min read

Morning Market Review for July 4, 2026

The morning market review for July 4, 2026, shows a prevailing mood of fear, as reflected by the Fear & Greed index, which stands at 32. In light of the current Fed interest rate of 3.50-3.75 and the upcoming FOMC meeting, investors remain cautious, analyzing potential changes in monetary policy. In today's analysis, we will take a look at two selected instruments that may be crucial in the context of the current market situation.

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Bitcoin - Daily Chart (D1)

Bitcoin - Daily Chart (D1)

On the daily chart, Bitcoin shows signs of stabilization after a clear downtrend. The price oscillates around the level of 62,400 USD, which may indicate a possible rebound. Technical indicators are beginning to suggest oversold conditions, and the candlestick formation at the bottom of the chart may herald a potential bounce. The key resistance level is 65,000 USD, while support is located around 60,000 USD. Decreased volume may suggest caution among investors.

Bitcoin - 4H Chart

Bitcoin - 4H Chart

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has taken on a consolidative character after recent declines. There is an attempt to form a local bottom around 61,800 USD. The price is currently in the zone of 62,400 USD, which may indicate a possible attempt to break upwards. The increase in volume in recent sessions may suggest buyer interest. Key support is at 61,000 USD, and resistance is around 63,500 USD.

Bitcoin - 1H Chart

Bitcoin - 1H Chart

The hourly chart indicates a slight rebound from the level of 62,000 USD. The upward movement is supported by increasing volume, which may suggest short-term interest from buyers. Key resistance is at the level of 62,800 USD, and support is at 61,800 USD. Technical indicators on this timeframe show a buyer's advantage, which may suggest further increases in the short term.

Bitcoin - 15-minute chart

Bitcoin - 15-minute chart

On the 15-minute chart, Bitcoin shows signs of short-term consolidation. The price oscillates between 62,200 USD and 62,500 USD. An increase in volume upon breaking 62,400 USD may indicate a potential breakout. The support level is 62,100 USD, and the resistance is 62,600 USD. Technical indicators suggest a neutral stance on this timeframe.

Bitcoin - Options data

Options data indicates a very bullish market sentiment, with a PUT/CALL ratio of 0.40. Open Interest at 3383 for CALL at 35 USD suggests bullish expectations. Key support levels for PUT are at 31 USD, where OI is 7325, which could be a significant defense level. Max Pain at 31 USD suggests that buyers may want to keep the price above this value. High CALL volume relative to PUT indicates a prevailing optimism among investors.

Bitcoin - Summary

Chart and options data analysis suggests a moderately bullish bias for Bitcoin. Key resistance levels are 62,800 USD and 65,000 USD, while support is at 61,000 USD and 60,000 USD. Options data supports the bullish scenario with strong CALL interest. Overall market sentiment is bullish, despite general fear in the market, which may favor further price increases.

Ethereum - Daily Chart (D1)

Ethereum - Daily Chart (D1)

On the daily chart, Ethereum is in a downtrend, but recent days have shown some signs of a rebound. The price is approaching resistance at 1800 USD, which may be key in the near future. The trading volume is moderate, suggesting that investors are cautious. If the price breaks above 1800 USD, further increases towards 2000 USD may occur. On the other hand, support is around 1600 USD, and breaking it could indicate a continuation of the downtrend.

Ethereum - 4H Chart

Ethereum - 4H Chart

On the 4-hour chart, there is an upward impulse that started around 1500 USD. Currently, the price is consolidating in the range of 1700-1750 USD. A breakout above the 1750 USD level could open the way for a test of 1800 USD. Support at the 1700 USD level seems to be stable, and its breakout could indicate a correction towards 1650 USD. The RSI indicates neutral levels, suggesting possible further consolidation.

Ethereum - 1H Chart

Ethereum - 1H Chart

On the hourly chart, Ethereum shows signs of consolidation after the recent rise. The price oscillates around 1750 USD, which may be a preparation for a larger move. Current support is at 1730 USD, and resistance at 1760 USD. Technical indicators, such as MACD, indicate neutral momentum, suggesting that the market is waiting for new impulses. A breakout beyond this range may define the direction for the upcoming hours.

Ethereum - 15-minute chart

Ethereum - 15-minute chart

The 15-minute chart shows limited volatility with a slight upward trend. The price remains above the level of 1745 USD, which may indicate short-term support. Resistance is located at 1760 USD. Indicators such as the stochastic RSI suggest the possibility of a short-term correction, but the overall sentiment remains positive. More pronounced movements are expected upon breaking either of these levels.

Ethereum - Options data

Options data indicates a strongly bullish sentiment with a put/call ratio of 0.24, suggesting an advantage for call options. The highest interest in calls is at strike levels of $14 and $15, indicating expectations of increases of 3.8% to 15.4% from the current ETF price. The max pain level is $12, which indicates that most options lose value at this price. The total open interest for call options is significantly higher than for puts, confirming the bullish sentiment among investors.

Ethereum - Summary

The sentiment for Ethereum is bullish, with key resistance at 1800 USD and support at 1600 USD. On lower timeframes, we observe consolidation, which may lead to a breakout in the near future. Options data confirms the dominance of bulls with strong interest in call options. It is worth monitoring the levels of 1700 USD as short-term support and 1750 USD as a potential starting point for further increases.

Frequently Asked Questions

How to analyze trading instruments effectively?
Effective analysis combines technical analysis (charts, patterns, indicators) with fundamental analysis (economic data, news events). Understanding both short-term price action and long-term trends is essential.
How do Fed decisions impact markets?
Fed rate decisions affect all asset classes. Higher rates strengthen USD, pressure gold prices, and often weigh on stocks. The tone of Fed communication is often more important than the decision itself.

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