The upcoming week, starting on July 20, 2026, promises to be a key moment for global financial markets, with a series of significant economic publications and events that may influence investors' decisions. As the global economy continues to grapple with uncertainties, market participants will closely monitor the upcoming data, trying to read signals regarding the future actions of central banks and the overall economic direction.
The week begins with data from Canada, where inflation indicators will be released. On Monday at 12:30 (Warsaw time), the Median CPI y/y and Trimmed CPI y/y will be published, forecasted at 2.1% and 2.0% respectively, indicating stabilization compared to previous readings. However, greater attention will be drawn to the monthly CPI, for which a decline of 0.2% is expected compared to a rise of 1.0% from the previous month. Such a result may indicate a potential easing of inflationary pressures, which could influence the future decisions of the Bank of Canada regarding monetary policy.
Later that same day, in the evening, investors' attention will shift to New Zealand, where a rise in the quarterly CPI to 1.5% from the previous level of 0.9% is expected. If the forecast is confirmed, it could affirm the growing inflationary pressure in the region, which may have further implications for the country's monetary policy.
The next day, Tuesday, will bring data regarding the change in the number of unemployment claims in the United Kingdom. The forecasted number of 28.3 thousand compared to the previous 31.2 thousand may suggest some stabilization in the labor market, which in turn could impact expectations regarding the actions of the Bank of England.
On Wednesday, investors will focus on the annual CPI inflation data in the United Kingdom, where the forecast is 2.7% compared to the previous 2.8%. Although a slight decrease in inflation is anticipated, this data will be crucial for understanding how the Bank of England may respond to changing economic conditions, especially in light of recent statements from central bank officials.
Thursday will prove to be an eventful day, especially for investors tracking the euro and the Australian dollar. Australia will publish data on the unemployment rate and employment change, where no changes in the unemployment rate at 4.4% are expected, but a significant slowdown in the pace of employment growth to 15.2 thousand from 40.3 thousand is anticipated. If these forecasts are confirmed, they may influence expectations regarding the monetary policy of the RBA.
In Europe, at 12:15 (Warsaw time), we will learn the decision of the European Central Bank regarding the main refinancing rate, where the current level of 2.40% is expected to be maintained. However, the ECB press conference scheduled for 12:45 (Warsaw time) may provide the most insights into the bank's future actions, especially in the context of the current economic challenges in the eurozone.
At the same time, global market sentiment remains cautious, as reflected in the current level of the Fear & Greed Index at 37/100, indicating prevailing fear among investors. A noticeable drop of 9 points over the past month underscores the growing uncertainty and caution in the markets. Investors will thus be looking for clear signals both in macroeconomic data and central bank commentary to better understand the directions in which the markets may head.
In summary, the upcoming week offers many critical data points and events that could significantly impact financial markets. Investors should be prepared for potential volatility and closely monitor developments to appropriately adjust their investment strategies. In the context of rising concerns and uncertainties, every new piece of data will be crucial for shaping expectations regarding future monetary and economic policy.