Geopolitics and monetary policy in the spotlight of investors
The American Federal Reserve currently maintains interest rates at 3.50-3.75%. Market expectations regarding changes in Fed monetary policy are stable, with a 99.5% probability of maintaining current levels at the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for April 29, 2026. It is worth noting that the Fear and Greed Index has risen to 21/100, signaling extreme fear in the market, although slightly less than a week ago. The stability of expectations regarding interest rates suggests that investors do not foresee sudden changes in Fed policy, which may bring short-term stabilization in financial markets.
Today, an increase in geopolitical tensions related to Iran has been observed. The President of the USA, Donald Trump, emphasized that the Tuesday deadline for negotiations with Iran is final, which increases uncertainty around potential conflicts. Additionally, Iran rejected the proposal for a ceasefire with the USA, which was communicated through Pakistan. However, transactions related to the transit of LNG tankers through the Strait of Hormuz have been accepted by Iran as part of an agreement with the USA. These events indicate the possibility of further tensions that may affect oil and natural gas prices, as well as the overall stability of commodity markets.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the United States is considering the possibility of conducting attacks on Iranian energy targets. This report comes in the context of rising tensions and uncertainty surrounding negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear program. These actions could have serious implications for global energy markets and security in the Middle East. Investors should be prepared for possible increases in oil and energy prices, which may further impact inflation and monetary policy in various countries.
Tomorrow may bring further market reactions to the developments in the geopolitical situation related to Iran. Investors should pay particular attention to any new information regarding potential US military actions and negotiations concerning a ceasefire. The stability of Fed policy provides some predictability, but tensions in the Middle East may introduce significant volatility to commodity and financial markets.
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CPI y/y is an inflation indicator that measures changes in the prices of goods and services over the year. An increase in CPI may suggest rising inflationary pressure, which is significant for monetary policy and investment decisions. A high reading may lead to tightening by the Fed. **Watchlist:**...
CPI m/m is an inflation indicator that measures the monthly change in prices of goods and services. An increase in CPI may suggest rising inflationary pressure, which is significant for monetary policy and investment decisions. **Watchlist:** DXY reaction, UST yields, credit spreads
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