Tensions in the Middle East and the stability of monetary policy are key for the markets.

In recent hours, tensions have risen around the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit point for global oil supplies. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has ordered ships to remain anchored in the Persian Gulf, threatening that approaching the Strait will be considered collaboration with the enemy. At the same time, U.S. military officials are preparing to take control of ships linked to Iran. This situation arises from several attacks carried out by the IRGC on commercial vessels. In the context of this escalation, Donald Trump announced the possibility of not extending the ceasefire with Iran if an agreement is not reached by Wednesday. These events could significantly impact oil prices, increasing uncertainty in energy markets.

In the context of monetary policy in the USA, current market expectations indicate stability in interest rates at the level of 3.50-3.75%. The next FOMC meeting scheduled for April 29 is unlikely to bring changes in interest rate policy, which is confirmed by the almost unanimous market expectation (97.9%). Market sentiment, measured by the Fear & Greed Index, indicates a state of greed, suggesting that investors are willing to take on greater risks in search of profits. The increase from 36 to 68 points over the week indicates a clear revival of optimism among market participants. Expected stable directions in monetary policy may support this sentiment; however, geopolitical events can quickly change moods.

Tomorrow, investors should pay attention to the developments around the Strait of Hormuz, which may affect commodity prices and overall stability in the financial markets. It will also be important to monitor any new information regarding Fed policy in the context of the upcoming FOMC meeting.