Investors are anxiously monitoring the prospects of interest rates and global growth.
The minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting indicate that most participants consider it necessary to further tighten monetary policy in response to persistent inflationary pressures. Currently, the Fed rate stands at 3.50-3.75%, and markets largely expect this level to be maintained at the upcoming FOMC meeting at the end of July. Nevertheless, about 32.6% of investors anticipate the possibility of a hike to the level of 3.75-4.00%, highlighting the uncertainty regarding future Fed decisions. Such signals may influence the increase in borrowing costs, which in turn could slow down economic growth.
The International Monetary Fund has published new economic growth forecasts. In 2026, the global economy is expected to grow by 2.3%, which is in line with previous estimates. However, the growth forecast for the eurozone has been lowered to 0.9% from the previously assumed 1.1% for this year. The lowered forecasts for the eurozone may be a result of uncertainty related to the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and geopolitical risks, which may affect investor sentiment and capital allocation decisions.
Donald Trump's statements regarding possible actions that may affect oil prices, as well as his comments on the situation with Iran, have attracted the attention of investors. Trump suggested that the United States may take actions that increase oil prices, which may be related to rising crude oil inventories in the U.S., which amounted to 2.998 million barrels compared to a forecast of -1.9 million. Such a situation may exert pressure on the commodity's quotes, especially in the context of potential military actions in the Middle East.
Tomorrow will bring new data on inflation and further comments from Fed members that may influence expectations regarding future interest rate decisions. Investors will also pay attention to the geopolitical situation and its impact on commodity prices, especially oil.
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