The stability of interest rates and geopolitical tensions dominate the markets.

Initial jobless claims in the USA amounted to 225 thousand, which is higher than the forecasted 215 thousand. This may suggest that the labor market in the USA is beginning to experience some difficulties. Nevertheless, expectations regarding interest rates remain stable, with a 96.4% chance of keeping rates in the range of 3.50-3.75% during the upcoming FOMC meeting. However, this data may exert some pressure on the Fed in the context of future monetary policy decisions, especially if subsequent reports indicate further problems in the labor market.

The situation in the Middle East is attracting the attention of investors, especially in the context of peace talks between Lebanon and Israel. The head of Hezbollah rejected the results of the talks, which may complicate the process of reaching an agreement. At the same time, the President of Lebanon, Michel Aoun, expressed hope for a ceasefire within the next 24 hours, awaiting responses from all parties. Additionally, former US President Donald Trump revealed that final negotiations are underway to end the war with Iran. These events may have a significant impact on the stability of the region and global energy commodity prices.

From the macroeconomic data that appeared today in the markets, it is worth paying attention to Switzerland and Australia. The Swiss CPI index rose by 0.2% m/m, slightly below the forecasts of 0.3%. This may suggest that inflationary pressure in Switzerland is beginning to stabilize. Meanwhile, in Australia, a significant increase in exports of 7.2% was recorded, which is a positive signal after the previous decline of 2.7%. Imports, on the other hand, increased by only 0.8%, indicating some slowdown in domestic demand. This macroeconomic data may influence future monetary policy decisions in these countries.

Tomorrow will bring more macroeconomic data that may influence central bank decisions. In a global context, it will be crucial to observe the development of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which may have a significant impact on commodity markets and global stability. Investors will also be monitoring any new information regarding monetary policy in the USA, especially in the context of the upcoming FOMC meeting.