Uncertainty around interest rates and geopolitical tensions shape the markets.

Discussions about the future decisions of the American Federal Reserve were one of the main topics of the day. Futures indicators point to about a 45% chance of an interest rate hike in July, which is an increase from 35% at the beginning of the week. Fed member Christopher Waller expressed concerns that it may be necessary to implement a more restrictive monetary policy if the latest core inflation readings turn out to be high. Markets are divided on whether the Fed will decide to raise rates, highlighting uncertainty among investors and affecting market sentiment.

The geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf has attracted the attention of investors, especially after reports of missile attacks near the city of Konarak and the presence of an American aircraft in the airspace of this region. In response, the US Navy has implemented a blockade concerning all ship traffic regardless of their flags. Additionally, former President Donald Trump assured that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open, which is crucial for global oil trade. These events may impact commodity prices and increase volatility in financial markets.

In Europe, investors' attention is focused on the decisions of the European Central Bank. Traders are increasing their bets on an interest rate hike by the ECB, fully pricing in a 25 basis point increase by September. The rise in expectations for ECB actions may affect currency rates and sentiment in European financial markets, particularly in the context of inflation, which remains a challenge for the eurozone.

Tomorrow will bring further monitoring of the geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf and anticipation of new inflation data in the USA. Investors will analyze this information in the context of expected decisions from the Fed and ECB, which may influence volatility in financial markets. Special attention should be paid to any new statements from Fed members that may provide insights into future monetary policy.