Investors concerned about geopolitics and economic data
Market expectations regarding future decisions of the Federal Reserve remain stable, with a 99.5% probability of maintaining the current interest rate level in the range of 3.50-3.75% at the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for April 29, 2026. In a global context, European Central Bank member Villeroy signaled the possibility of raising interest rates in the eurozone. Such a decision may affect exchange rates and trigger further changes in the credit market.
Tensions in the Middle East region have increased following the publication by the Iranian Fars agency of news about potential military targets in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Jordan. Such reports may cause concern in the oil and gas markets, given the significance of these countries in the global energy supply chain. Additionally, Iran's statement regarding the Strait of Hormuz protocol, which does not impose restrictions, underscores their strategic importance in global maritime trade.
Data on the US trade balance showed a deficit of 57.3 billion dollars, which was better than the forecasted result of 60.55 billion dollars. In Canada, the situation was the opposite, with a larger than expected trade deficit of 5.74 billion dollars. Additionally, the number of new unemployment claims in the US was 202 thousand, which is a better result than expected. These data indicate a diverse economic situation in North America, which may influence investor decisions and investment directions.
The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which was lower than the expected increase of 0.5%. This slowdown in inflation may impact the monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank, which may be less inclined to raise interest rates in the short term. Lower inflationary pressure in Switzerland may also affect the exchange rate of the Swiss franc.
Tomorrow will bring new challenges for investors, particularly in the context of further geopolitical developments and expectations regarding monetary policy. Market attention will be focused on any new economic data that may influence central bank decisions and the situation in the Middle East, which could significantly impact energy commodity prices.
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