American data on factory orders and the labor market under the scrutiny of investors.
The current Fed interest rate remains at 3.50-3.75%, and most investors do not expect changes in the near future, as reflected in the expectations for the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 29, 2026. A rate hike to the range of 3.75-4.00% is considered by 17.6% of market participants, suggesting a stabilization of expectations in light of current macroeconomic data. Traders have reduced their bets on rate hikes following weaker-than-expected employment data, which may influence future Fed decisions. Expectations for rate hikes have shifted to December, indicating caution among investors.
Today's data on the labor market in the USA showed that the number of initial unemployment claims was 215 thousand, in line with forecasts, which is a stable result compared to the previous week. Furthermore, the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.2% from the expected 4.3%, which can be seen as a positive signal for the economy. Average earnings increased by 3.5% year-on-year, which is consistent with forecasts and may indicate stability in employee incomes. This data may influence future actions by the Fed, as a stable labor market is a key factor in decisions regarding interest rates.
Orders in American factories fell by 1.3% month-on-month, which is a better result than the forecasted decline of 2%, but significantly worse compared to the previous increase of 4.8%. These data indicate a weakening of activity in the industrial sector, which may raise concerns about future economic development. Weaker orders may influence decisions regarding monetary policy, especially if this trend continues.
In the eurozone, the unemployment rate has dropped to 6.2%, which is a better result than the expected 6.3%. This positive surprise may support the economic stability of the region, even though investors remain cautious in their actions. In the context of global tensions and uncertainty regarding future monetary policy decisions, this data may influence the perception of the economic situation in Europe.
Tomorrow, investors will closely monitor further macroeconomic data and any signals from the Fed regarding future interest rate decisions. Special attention will be focused on any information that could influence expectations regarding inflation and economic growth.
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