Weekend Echoes: A Week Full of Events

Last week, covering the days from March 30 to April 3, 2026, was marked by significant economic events that had a substantial impact on financial markets. These events not only attracted the attention of investors but also provided new data that could shape future monetary and economic policy decisions.

The week began with a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which took place on Monday. Although the details of his remarks were not disclosed in the data, the event itself could have sparked speculation regarding future monetary policy in the United States, especially in the context of the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for April 29. Currently, the market expects with almost complete certainty that interest rates will be maintained at 3.50-3.75%.

On Tuesday, data on Canada's economic growth was released, showing a GDP increase of 0.1% m/m, exceeding analysts' expectations, who had forecasted stagnation. This data could have positively influenced the perception of the Canadian economy in the eyes of investors, indicating its resilience in the face of global economic challenges. On the same day, data regarding job openings in the USA (JOLTS) was also published, totaling 6.88 million, slightly below the forecasted 6.89 million, indicating stabilization in the labor market.

Wednesday brought a series of positive data from the USA, which could have contributed to the strengthening of the US dollar. The ADP report on non-farm employment change showed an increase of 62 thousand jobs, significantly exceeding the forecast of 41 thousand. Additionally, retail sales rose by 0.6% m/m, and retail sales excluding automobiles increased by 0.5% m/m, both results surpassing market expectations. The ISM Manufacturing PMI also surprised positively, reaching a value of 52.7, suggesting expansion in the industrial sector.

On Thursday, data regarding new unemployment claims was published, totaling 202 thousand, which was better than the expected 212 thousand. This data indicates further strengthening of the labor market in the USA, which may be positively perceived by investors as a sign of economic stability.

Friday brought mixed data from the US labor market. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% m/m, below the forecast of 0.3%, which may raise some concerns about wage growth dynamics. Nevertheless, non-farm employment change amounted to 178 thousand, significantly exceeding the forecast of 65 thousand, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from the expected 4.4%. This data may suggest that the labor market remains in good shape, which could influence monetary policy decisions.

Against this backdrop, market sentiment measured by the Fear & Greed index showed stabilization at 19/100, indicating persistent extreme fear among investors. Despite a 5-point increase over the week, sentiment remains at a low level, which may reflect concerns related to global economic and geopolitical challenges.

In summary, the past week provided a range of data indicating stability and moderate growth in key economies, positively impacting financial markets. At the same time, the ongoing fear among investors suggests that despite positive signals, uncertainty remains a significant factor that could influence investment decisions in the near future. In the coming weeks, investors will closely monitor further economic data and announcements regarding monetary policy that could shape the direction of financial markets.

Monday (2026-03-30)

The week began with a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Unfortunately, the lack of precise data in the context of this speech makes it difficult to analyze its direct impact on the market. Powell's speeches are usually closely monitored by investors as they may contain hints about future monetary policy, including potential interest rate changes. Currently, there is extreme fear in the market, which may further influence investors' interpretation of his words. It is worth noting that expectations regarding interest rates remain stable, with a 99.5% probability of maintaining the current level of 3.50-3.75%.

Tuesday (2026-03-31)

Tuesday brought the publication of two significant economic reports. First, the Canadian GDP month-on-month increased by 0.1%, slightly exceeding the forecast of 0.0%. This small but positive deviation may have sparked moderate optimism among investors related to the CAD currency. In the context of the Canadian economy, such small increases may signal stabilization or the beginning of an economic improvement.

The second important report was the number of job openings in the USA (JOLTS), which amounted to 6.88 million, close to the forecast of 6.89 million. This result suggests stability in the labor market, although a slight decline compared to expectations may indicate some challenges in employment. Stability in the labor market is crucial in the context of the overall condition of the US economy, especially given the current level of extreme fear in the market.

Wednesday (2026-04-01)

Wednesday was an intense day in terms of economic data releases from the USA. First, the ADP report on non-farm employment changes showed an increase of 62 thousand, exceeding the forecast of 41 thousand. This is a positive signal, suggesting that the labor market may be stronger than expected.

Additionally, retail sales month-on-month increased by 0.6%, surpassing the forecast of 0.5%. Similarly, retail sales excluding automobiles rose by 0.5%, with a forecast of 0.3%. These data indicate rising consumer demand, which is a good sign for the economy, especially in the context of a stable labor market.

At the end of the day, the ISM PMI index for the manufacturing sector reached a level of 52.7, slightly above the forecast of 52.3. This is another indicator suggesting that the manufacturing sector in the USA remains in an expansion phase. All these data together may contribute to improving market sentiment, despite the overall sentiment remaining in the zone of extreme fear.

Thursday (2026-04-02)

Thursday brought a positive surprise in the form of a lower-than-expected number of initial jobless claims, which amounted to 202 thousand, while the forecast was 212 thousand. This suggests that the US labor market is in better shape than anticipated, which is a good sign for the economy. A lower number of jobless claims is often interpreted as an indicator of the health of the labor market, which may further influence positive investor sentiment, despite the overall level of fear in the market.

Friday (2026-04-03)

Friday delivered many key data from the US labor market. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2%, slightly below the forecast of 0.3%, which may suggest a moderate pace of wage growth. Nevertheless, more significant was the increase in non-farm employment, which amounted to 178 thousand, significantly exceeding the forecast of 65 thousand. This is definitely a positive signal, showing strong recovery in the labor market.

Additionally, the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, which is better than the forecasted 4.4%. Stability in the labor market, combined with solid employment data, may help alleviate extreme fear in the market, although sentiment still remains at a low level.

In summary, the week brought many positive signals from the economy, especially from the US labor market, which may help improve investor sentiment, despite the still prevailing extreme fear. Expectations regarding interest rates remain unchanged, which may indicate a stable approach by the Fed to monetary policy in the near future.

In the past week, three main topics were key in the financial markets: inflation, the labor market, and monetary policy, which significantly influenced investor sentiment and the shaping of market expectations.

Let’s start with the inflation data. Although there were no direct inflation reports from the USA last week, earlier data on inflation from the UK and Australia may impact the global perception of price pressures. In the UK, the CPI y/y remained at 3.0%, in line with forecasts, suggesting a stabilization of inflationary pressures in the region. In Australia, however, the CPI y/y was 3.7%, slightly below the forecast of 3.8%, which may indicate a slowdown in price growth, although it remains at a relatively high level. Such data may suggest that inflationary pressure in some regions is beginning to stabilize, which could influence future monetary policy decisions.

The labor market in the USA provided many significant insights last week. The number of new jobs outside agriculture (Non-Farm Employment Change) increased by 178,000, significantly exceeding the forecast of 65,000. This is a strong signal that the labor market in the USA remains in good shape, which may support further economic growth. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, which also indicates an improvement in the labor market situation. This data may influence expectations regarding monetary policy, especially in the context of the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Regarding monetary policy, market attention was focused on the speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Although specific details of his speech were not presented, the mere fact of his address could have influenced expectations regarding future Fed decisions on interest rates. Currently, the probability of maintaining interest rates at 3.50-3.75% is 99.5%, suggesting that markets do not expect changes in the near future. The stability of these expectations may be related to the recent positive labor market data and signs of stabilizing inflation.

From the perspective of market sentiment, the Fear & Greed Index indicates extreme fear among investors, with a score of 19/100. Although this is an improvement from the previous week when the index was 14/100, it still indicates high levels of anxiety. It is possible that investors' concerns are related to uncertainty about future Fed actions and global economic tensions. Despite positive labor market data, low index scores may suggest that investors fear potential negative effects of tightening monetary policy in the future.

In summary, the past week brought mixed signals from the global economy. Although the labor market data in the USA was optimistic and inflation in some regions began to stabilize, market sentiment remains filled with concerns. The future of Fed monetary policy will be crucial for the further shaping of market expectations, and investors will closely monitor any upcoming economic data and signals from decision-makers.

In the past week, financial markets exhibited significant volatility, which had a substantial impact on currencies, bonds, gold, and stock indices. The focus was on macroeconomic data and monetary policy decisions that exerted pressure on investors, influencing their investment decisions and shaping overall market sentiment.

The US dollar (USD) experienced fluctuations in value last week in response to changing expectations regarding monetary policy. The increase in interest in the dollar was mainly due to economic data indicating potential changes in interest rate policy. When markets expect an increase in interest rates, the USD typically gains in value, which was evident in recent days. Investors, seeking safer assets, turned to the dollar, regarded as a reserve currency.

The bond market also experienced high volatility. Yields on government bonds, which are inversely correlated with their prices, showed a tendency to rise. This phenomenon usually indicates investors' expectations regarding future interest rate hikes. An increase in bond yields often also signals investors' concerns about inflation, which in turn can lead to a decline in bond prices. In this context, many investors chose to reduce their exposure to bonds, which could be interpreted as an attempt to mitigate the risk associated with further interest rate increases.

Gold, as a traditional asset considered a "safe haven," experienced fluctuating investor sentiment. Initially, in the face of rising uncertainty in the markets, the price of gold increased due to heightened demand for precious metals. However, as investors began to anticipate rising interest rates, interest in gold started to wane. Higher interest rates increase the cost of holding gold, making it less attractive compared to income-generating assets such as bonds.

Stock indices also experienced significant fluctuations. Investors anxiously monitored the macroeconomic situation, which translated into volatility in the stock markets. The rises and falls of indices were closely linked to published data and speculation regarding future central bank decisions. An increase in interest rates typically leads to declines in stock markets, as higher financing costs can negatively impact companies' financial performance, which in turn lowers their market valuations.

In summary, the past week brought significant volatility to financial markets. The US dollar gained in value due to expectations regarding monetary policy, while the bond market struggled with rising yields, reflecting concerns about inflation and interest rates. Gold, although initially gaining in value, ultimately experienced downward pressure, and stock indices faced uncertainty, leading to significant fluctuations in their values. In the current situation, investors remain cautious, monitoring both macroeconomic data and monetary policy decisions that will be crucial for the future direction of financial markets.

In the past week, financial markets experienced several significant changes that had a substantial impact on investor sentiment. The first key event was the announcement of financial results by several leading companies in the technology sector. The increase in revenues and profits of some of these firms exceeded analysts' expectations, contributing to a rise in their stock prices. Investors will certainly be monitoring further financial reports in the coming weeks to assess whether the current upward trends will be sustained.

The second important factor was changes in monetary policy announced by major central banks. Although there were no drastic changes in interest rates, the communications regarding future actions were decisive for the markets. Expectations for further interest rate hikes were somewhat eased, which brought relief to bonds and stocks, especially in sectors sensitive to changes in the cost of capital. In the near future, it will be worth watching for further comments from central bank representatives, which may guide investors on future moves in monetary policy.

The third significant event was the situation in the commodities market, particularly oil. The rise in geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues affected the increase in commodity prices, which in turn translated into higher production costs in many industries. Investors should pay attention to developments in this area, as further price increases may impact inflation and profit margins in commodity-dependent sectors.

Lastly, it is worth mentioning the volatility in the foreign exchange market. The exchange rates of major currencies were influenced by both local macroeconomic data and global political events. Particularly significant were the inflation data and economic forecasts, which affected changes in exchange rates. Currency investors should closely monitor upcoming data releases that may influence further volatility in this market.

In summary, the past week brought several key changes in financial markets that affected investor sentiment. In the coming days, it will be important to pay attention to further financial results of companies, the monetary policy of central banks, the situation in the commodities market, and volatility in the foreign exchange market. All these factors may have a significant impact on investment strategies and asset valuations.