Weekly Dizziness: What the Week of 09.03-13.03.2026 Brought

Last week in the financial markets was full of significant events that attracted the attention of investors and analysts worldwide. The focus was primarily on macroeconomic data from the USA and the UK, which may have a substantial impact on future monetary policy decisions. It is also worth noting that the persistent extreme fear in the markets, reflected in the Fear & Greed Index, remains a key factor influencing investor decisions.

The week began with the publication of inflation data in the United States, which met analysts' expectations. Both the CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m were 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, suggesting price stabilization at this level. The annual CPI remained at 2.4%. This data indicates a lack of inflation surprises, which may provide some relief to investors concerned about rising interest rates from the FED.

On Thursday, investors were drawn to the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. Although there were no specifics in the forecasts, everyone was eagerly awaiting guidance on the future monetary policy of the UK. On the same day, in the USA, data on new unemployment claims were published, totaling 213 thousand, slightly below the forecasted number of 214 thousand. This shows stabilization in the labor market, although there are still some concerns regarding its condition.

Friday brought several significant publications. In the UK, the data on monthly GDP growth was disappointing, reaching 0.0% against an expected 0.2%. This may indicate an economic slowdown that will require attention from monetary policy decision-makers. In the USA, however, inflation, measured by the inflation index related to the future of the dollar, was 2.9%, slightly above the forecast of 2.8%, which may increase expectations regarding a potential tightening of monetary policy by the FED.

The labor market data from Canada was surprisingly negative. Employment change was -83.9 thousand, while a growth of 10.3 thousand was expected. The increase in the unemployment rate to 6.7% also raised concerns among investors. This may indicate a deterioration in the economic situation in Canada, which in turn could influence the Bank of Canada's decisions regarding interest rates.

American data on economic growth for the first quarter was below expectations, with a result of 0.7% compared to a forecast of 1.4%. This may suggest that the US economy is beginning to slow down, which will be a significant factor that the FED will consider at the upcoming FOMC meeting. However, the data on job openings (JOLTS Job Openings) was positive, with a result of 6.95 million against a forecast of 6.76 million, which may suggest that the labor market remains relatively strong.

Despite these mixed macroeconomic results, market sentiment is still dominated by extreme fear, as reflected in the current level of the Fear & Greed Index at 20/100. It is worth noting that over the past month, this index has fallen by 17 points, suggesting increasing uncertainty in the financial markets.

In summary, last week brought mixed signals from the economies of the USA, the UK, and Canada. Investors, concerned about a potential economic slowdown, will certainly be closely monitoring upcoming macroeconomic data and central bank decisions that could significantly influence future directions in the financial markets.

Weekly Summary of Financial Markets

In the past week, financial markets were influenced by many key macroeconomic data points that provided investors with insights into the health of economies and future monetary policy decisions. The data contained in the reports had a significant impact on market sentiment, which has recently been characterized by extreme fear.

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

On Wednesday, investors focused on inflation data from the United States. The CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m indicators published at 13:30 (Warsaw time) were 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, exactly in line with analysts' forecasts. The annual CPI inflation also did not surprise and stood at 2.4%, which was in line with market expectations. This data indicates that inflation in the USA remains stable, which may suggest that the Federal Reserve will have no reason to change the current interest rate policy at the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for March 18, 2026. The current probability of maintaining rates at 3.50-3.75% is as high as 99.1%.

Thursday, March 12, 2026

On Thursday, the most important event was the speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, which took place at 10:30 (Warsaw time). Although no exact details regarding his statements were provided, such speeches typically offer insights into the future monetary policy of the United Kingdom. At 13:30 (Warsaw time), data on unemployment claims in the USA was published, amounting to 213 thousand, slightly less than the forecasted 214 thousand. Although the difference is small, positive data can be interpreted as a sign of ongoing stability in the US labor market.

Friday, March 13, 2026

Friday was a day rich in significant macroeconomic data. At 8:00 (Warsaw time), data on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United Kingdom was published, showing stagnation at 0.0%, below the forecasted growth of 0.2%. Such a situation may raise concerns about a slowdown in economic growth in the United Kingdom.

In the USA, inflation measured by the Core PCE Price Index m/m was in line with expectations at 0.4%. However, the quarterly economic growth in the USA (Prelim GDP q/q) was lower than expected, reaching 0.7% compared to the forecast of 1.4%. This may indicate some weakening in the pace of economic growth.

Canada, on the other hand, surprised negatively, reporting a significant drop in employment. The change in employment was -83.9 thousand, significantly worse than the forecasted value of 10.3 thousand. Additionally, the unemployment rate rose to 6.7%, exceeding expectations by 0.1 percentage points. This data may signal problems in the Canadian labor market, which could influence the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decisions.

At the end of the day, data on job openings in the USA (JOLTS Job Openings) was published, amounting to 6.95 million, exceeding forecasts of 6.76 million. This indicates a strong labor market, which may somewhat balance the weaker economic growth data.

Market Sentiment Analysis

The current market sentiment, measured by the Fear & Greed index, indicates extreme fear, with a value of 20 out of 100. Compared to the previous week, where the index was at 25, and a month ago, where its value was at 37, a clear downward trend is visible. The current situation may result from mixed economic signals and uncertainty regarding the future monetary policy of major central banks.

Conclusions

Despite stable inflation data from the USA, which did not cause surprises in the market, other data, such as the decline in GDP in the United Kingdom and the unexpected weakening of the labor market in Canada, may raise some concerns among investors. As the FOMC meeting approaches, markets will closely monitor any signals regarding future monetary policy decisions. The current situation requires caution and careful monitoring of incoming data that may influence the further shaping of market sentiment.

In the past week, key market themes focused on inflation, the labor market situation, and expectations regarding monetary policy, especially in the context of the upcoming FOMC meeting. The economic data that was published had a significant impact on the analysis of the current economic situation and on the anticipated decisions of central banks.

Inflation

Inflation indicators for the United States, published on Wednesday, confirmed earlier forecasts, which may indicate a stabilization of inflation trends. Both CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m were 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, exactly as predicted. Yearly inflation (CPI y/y) was also in line with forecasts at 2.4%. However, on Friday, inflation in the USA rose slightly above expectations, reaching 2.9% compared to the forecasted 2.8%. This slight exceedance of forecasts may suggest potential inflationary pressures that will need to be closely monitored by monetary policy decision-makers.

Labor Market

Labor market data in the USA showed some positive signals, although some indicators may raise concerns. The number of new unemployment claims was slightly lower than expected, at 213 thousand compared to the forecasted 214 thousand. This indicates some stability in the labor market, despite an earlier negative surprise related to Non-Farm Employment Change, which was -92 thousand in the previous week. Meanwhile, less optimistic information came from Canada – employment change was -83.9 thousand, while the forecast anticipated an increase of 10.3 thousand, and the unemployment rate rose slightly above expectations to 6.7%.

Monetary Policy

In the context of monetary policy, attention is drawn to the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for March 18. The current FED rate is 3.50-3.75%, and the probability of maintaining this level is almost certain, at 99.1%. Given the stability of inflation and labor market data, it is unlikely that the FED will decide to change interest rates in the near future. However, further observations of inflation and the labor market will be crucial in the context of future decisions.

Market Sentiment

The Fear & Greed Index indicates extreme fear at a level of 20/100, which may indicate significant uncertainty among investors. Although the index was relatively stable throughout the week, it is significantly lower than a month ago when it was 37/100. Such sentiment may influence increased volatility in financial markets and caution among investors in making investment decisions.

Summary

In summary, the past week brought mixed signals from the economy. On one hand, the stabilization of inflation indicators in the USA and a slightly lower number of unemployment claims can be seen as positive. On the other hand, negative labor market data from Canada and inflation rising above forecasts in the USA may raise some concerns. In the near future, it will be crucial to monitor the further development of the inflationary situation and the labor market, which will help assess future monetary policy decisions. High uncertainty and extreme fear among investors suggest that markets may continue to experience increased volatility, requiring caution in making investment decisions.

In the past week, we observed significant changes in the financial markets, which had a substantial impact on various asset classes, including the US dollar (USD), bonds, gold, and key stock indices. Each of these market segments reacted to current economic and political events, providing investors with both opportunities and challenges.

Let's start with the US dollar. In recent days, the USD exchange rate has shown a tendency to strengthen against other major currencies. This was due to optimistic macroeconomic data from the US, which indicated stable economic growth and an improving labor market situation. The dollar also gained value in connection with expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which traditionally enhances the attractiveness of the US currency in the eyes of foreign investors. Additionally, geopolitical tensions also contributed to the increased demand for the dollar as a safe haven.

In the bond market, we noticed some turbulence resulting from changing expectations regarding monetary policy. Yields on US Treasury bonds rose, reflecting increasing expectations for a faster pace of monetary policy normalization. Investors began to discount the possibility of higher interest rates in the future, which affected the decline in bond prices. The rise in bond yields suggests that investors are becoming more cautious about inflation risk and potentially higher financing costs.

As for gold, this traditional safe-haven asset showed mixed signals. On one hand, a strengthening dollar typically puts pressure on gold prices, making it more expensive for investors holding other currencies. On the other hand, concerns about inflation and geopolitical uncertainty continue to support demand for gold as a hedge against risk. As a result, gold prices oscillated within a narrow range, showing no clear trend in either direction.

In the stock market, major stock indices recorded mixed results. On one hand, positive macroeconomic data and financial results from some large corporations contributed to increased optimism among investors, which in turn supported gains in the stock markets. On the other hand, concerns about inflation and the possibility of a faster-than-expected tightening of monetary policy by central banks led to increased volatility in the stock market. The technology sector, which is particularly sensitive to interest rate changes, experienced some declines, while more defensive sectors, such as utilities, performed better.

In summary, the past week in the financial markets was full of dynamic changes that offered opportunities on one hand while carrying risks on the other. Investors must therefore remain vigilant and flexible, adjusting their investment strategies to current market conditions. It is also worth paying attention to upcoming economic and political events that may influence future directions in the financial markets. Fundamental analysis and monitoring central bank policies remain crucial for understanding and forecasting future movements in the markets.

In the past week, financial markets showed varied activity, reflecting changing investor sentiments and the impact of global economic events. It is worth noting a few key conclusions that may be significant in the coming days.

First, the stock market experienced some fluctuations, which can be attributed to uncertainties related to the monetary policy of major central banks. Investors are eagerly awaiting further signals regarding interest rates that may influence the direction of stock markets in the future. This volatility was also due to mixed financial results from some companies that did not meet analysts' expectations. Attention should be paid to the technology and energy sectors, which showed both increases and decreases depending on specific industry factors.

Second, the currency market also exhibited volatility, mainly due to speculation regarding future decisions of central banks and changes in global trade policy. In particular, it is worth monitoring the exchange rates of emerging market currencies, which may be more susceptible to changes in investor sentiment and capital flows. Stronger currencies, such as the US dollar or euro, may continue to attract investors seeking safe havens, but their rates may be subject to further fluctuations in response to new economic data.

The third significant point of the week was the movements in the commodities market. Oil prices fluctuated, which was related to geopolitical tensions and forecasts regarding demand for energy commodities. Meanwhile, the precious metals market, including gold, recorded some increases, indicating sustained interest from investors in hedges against inflation and economic uncertainty.

What to watch for in the coming week? Above all, investors should focus on the publication of new macroeconomic data that may provide clues about the condition of the global economy. Particularly important will be inflation and employment indicators, which may influence central bank decisions and thus financial markets. Additionally, it is worth following the development of the geopolitical situation, especially in regions crucial for commodity supplies.

In the coming days, the financial results of additional companies will also be significant, as they may influence investor sentiment and shape trends in the stock markets. Attention should be paid to companies in the technology sector, which may continue to feel pressure from changing consumer preferences and legal regulations.

In summary, the past week brought mixed signals from financial markets, and the coming week may prove to be equally dynamic. Investors should remain vigilant and respond to current events and economic data that may impact their investment strategies.