Weekly Review: Key Events from March 23-27, 2026

Last week in the financial markets was characterized by dynamic changes and mixed results of published macroeconomic indicators, which had a significant impact on investor sentiment. These events took place against a backdrop of increasing uncertainty in the markets, reflected in the Fear & Greed index, which indicates extreme fear among investors.

The week began with positive surprises from the German industrial sector. The German Flash Manufacturing PMI published on Tuesday was 51.7, exceeding the forecast of 49.6. This indicates expansion in the German industry, which may suggest an improvement in economic conditions in this key country for Europe. However, the services sector in Germany did not meet expectations, with a result of 51.2 compared to the forecast of 52.5. Similarly, in the United Kingdom, PMI indicators brought mixed results. The Flash Manufacturing PMI was 51.4, which exceeded expectations of 50.0, while the Flash Services PMI reached 51.2, falling short of the forecast of 52.8.

In the United States, both the industrial and services sectors showed slightly weaker results than expected. The Flash Manufacturing PMI was 52.4, above the forecast of 51.5, while the Flash Services PMI reached 51.1, below the predictions of 52.0. Nevertheless, these results still indicate growth in both sectors.

Wednesday brought inflation data from Australia and the United Kingdom. In Australia, the CPI m/m remained at 0.0%, failing to meet expectations of a 0.1% increase. The annual CPI inflation was 3.7%, slightly below the forecast of 3.8%. The Trimmed Mean CPI m/m also disappointed, reaching 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3%. In the United Kingdom, the annual CPI inflation was 3.0%, in line with forecasts, which may suggest some stabilization of prices in the country.

Thursday brought labor market data from the United States. The number of new unemployment claims was 210 thousand, which was slightly better than the forecast of 211 thousand. A stable labor market situation may be a positive signal for the American economy, especially in the context of upcoming interest rate decisions.

Friday concluded the week with retail sales data from the United Kingdom, which showed a decline of 0.4% m/m, although it was less than the forecasted -0.6%. Despite the decline, this result suggests that consumers in the United Kingdom are still spending, albeit to a slightly lesser extent than anticipated.

All these events took place in the context of global investor sentiment, which remains extremely negative. The current level of the Fear & Greed index at 10/100 indicates a high level of caution and uncertainty in the markets. Over the month, this index has dropped from 41/100 to the current level, indicating increasing caution among investors. The week before, the index was at 15/100, indicating a further decline in confidence.

In summary, last week in the financial markets was dominated by mixed economic results in key economies, which, despite some positive signals, were not sufficient to decisively improve the overall mood in the markets. In the near future, investors will closely monitor the further development of the economic situation and the decisions of central banks, which may influence the stabilization of market sentiments.

In the past week, financial markets were dominated by the publication of key economic indicators from several major global economies, which had a significant impact on investor sentiment and their decisions.

Tuesday, March 24:

Today began with the release of PMI data for the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. The German Flash Manufacturing PMI surprised positively, reaching a level of 51.7, significantly exceeding the forecasted value of 49.6. This result suggests expansion in the industrial sector, which may indicate some recovery in the German economy. However, the Flash Services PMI for Germany was 51.2, which was below expectations of 52.5. Similarly, in the United Kingdom, the Flash Manufacturing PMI reached 51.4, surpassing the forecast of 50.0, but the Flash Services PMI was 51.2, below expectations of 52.8. In the USA, the Flash Manufacturing PMI also exceeded forecasts, reaching 52.4 against an expected 51.5, but the Flash Services PMI was 51.1, which was below predictions of 52.0. Market reactions were mixed, with a positive reception of the better-than-expected results in the industrial sector, but some uncertainty regarding the services sector.

Wednesday, March 25:

Australia released its inflation data. The month-on-month CPI remained at 0.0%, slightly below the forecast of 0.1%, while the year-on-year CPI was 3.7%, not reaching the predicted 3.8%. The Trimmed Mean CPI month-on-month was 0.2%, also below expectations of 0.3%. This suggests some stabilization of inflation, which could provide room for the Australian central bank to consider future monetary policy decisions. In the United Kingdom, the year-on-year CPI was exactly as forecasted, at 3.0%, indicating a stable level of inflation. Market reactions were relatively calm, as this data largely met expectations.

Thursday, March 26:

Today, the focus was on US labor market data. The number of new unemployment claims was 210 thousand, slightly below the forecasted level of 211 thousand. This is a positive signal for the labor market, suggesting its strength and stability. Investor reactions were moderately positive, with a slight increase in optimism regarding the condition of the US economy.

Friday, March 27:

In the United Kingdom, month-on-month retail sales data was released, which came in at -0.4%, better than the forecast of -0.6%. Although we are still seeing a decline, it is less than expected. This may suggest some resilience among consumers in the face of challenging economic conditions. Market reactions were positive, with improved sentiment regarding the economic outlook for the United Kingdom.

Sentiment and Expectations Analysis:

Throughout the week, market sentiment remained in the zone of extreme fear, reflecting a value of 10/100 on the Fear & Greed Index. Despite the fact that over the past month this index has dropped from a level of 41/100, changes over the past week were minimal, suggesting stability in negative sentiment. This situation may be a result of uncertainty regarding the future actions of central banks and general concerns about global economic prospects.

In summary, the past week provided mixed signals from various economies. Increases in the industrial sector in Germany and the USA were balanced by lower results in the services sector. Labor markets, especially in the USA, showed some strength, which may support sentiment in the coming weeks. In the United Kingdom, stability in inflation and better-than-expected retail sales results may suggest some recovery. All this occurs in the context of ongoing extreme fear in the markets, indicating the need for a cautious approach from investors in the near future.

In the past week, key topics in the area of finance and the economy included inflation data, the labor market, and PMI readings, which provided significant insights into the condition of major global economies. This data is crucial for shaping future monetary policy.

Let's start with the inflation data. In Australia, the annual inflation rate (CPI y/y) was 3.7%, slightly below the forecasted level of 3.8%. The monthly inflation reading (CPI m/m) remained at 0.0%, also below expectations of 0.1%. Similarly, the Trimmed Mean CPI m/m reached 0.2%, which was lower than the forecasted 0.3%. This data indicates some weakening of inflationary pressure, which may influence monetary policy decisions in Australia. In the United Kingdom, the annual inflation (CPI y/y) met expectations at 3.0%, indicating price stabilization in the country.

In the U.S. labor market, the number of new unemployment claims was close to predictions, totaling 210 thousand against the forecasted 211 thousand. The stability of claims suggests that the U.S. labor market remains in good shape, which is a positive signal for the economy. It is worth noting that in the previous week, this number was 205 thousand, showing slight fluctuations in this area.

On the other hand, PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data provided mixed signals. In Germany, the PMI for the manufacturing sector was 51.7, significantly above the forecast of 49.6, suggesting expansion in this sector. However, the PMI for services fell to 51.2, below expectations of 52.5, which may indicate some challenges in the services sector. In the United Kingdom, both the manufacturing PMI (51.4) and the services PMI (51.2) were above forecasts, which may indicate an improving economic situation. In the U.S., the manufacturing PMI was 52.4, exceeding the forecast of 51.5, while the services PMI reached 51.1, which was below expectations of 52.0. This data shows that the manufacturing sector in the U.S. is performing better than the services sector.

In the monetary policy market, investor attention was focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for the end of April. The current FED interest rate is 3.50-3.75%, and the probability of maintaining it at this level is very high, at 95.9%. This suggests that investors do not expect changes in monetary policy in the near future.

From the perspective of market sentiment, the Fear & Greed Index indicates extreme fear, with a score of 10 out of 100, which is a significant drop compared to previous periods. A month ago, this index was at 41 out of 100, showing that investor sentiment has deteriorated significantly. The stability of sentiment in the current week (a drop of 5 points) may suggest that investors remain cautious in the face of economic uncertainty.

In summary, the past week provided mixed signals from the financial markets. Inflation and labor market data are relatively stable, but PMI indicators point to diverse challenges in various sectors of the economy. Market sentiment remains cautious, which may influence future investment decisions and the shaping of monetary policy in the coming months.

In the past week, financial markets experienced dynamic changes that had a significant impact on key assets such as the US dollar (USD), government bonds, gold, and stock indices. Analyzing these changes, several conclusions can be drawn that will help understand current investor sentiment and potential market directions in the coming weeks.

The exchange rate of the US dollar remains at the center of investors' attention, mainly due to its role as a global reserve currency. In recent days, USD has shown relatively stable behavior, which may indicate a certain level of investor confidence in the US economy in the context of current macroeconomic events. The stability of the dollar has been supported by hopes for further monetary policy actions that may affect the pace of inflation and economic growth in the United States. However, any signal from the Federal Reserve regarding changes in interest rates could potentially trigger greater volatility in the USD exchange rate.

In the government bond market, slight declines in yields have been observed, which is usually interpreted as a signal of growing investor interest in this safe asset. Government bonds play a key role in investors' portfolios, providing stability and capital protection during periods of market uncertainty. Falling yields may indicate concerns related to global economic growth and expectations regarding future central bank decisions on interest rates.

Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe haven, has also attracted investors' attention. In the past week, its price has shown some volatility, which can be attributed to a mix of factors such as changing inflation expectations and monetary policy decisions. Investors who are concerned about the stability of the global economy often turn to gold as a hedge against inflation risk and market uncertainty.

Stock indices, on the other hand, experienced mixed results. Indicators such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones recorded some fluctuations, resulting from both positive and negative investor sentiment. The volatility of the indices was influenced by the publication of financial results from key companies and macroeconomic data that may suggest changes in economic dynamics. Gains in some sectors were balanced by declines in others, reflecting a heterogeneous picture of the economy.

In summary, the past week in financial markets was characterized by relative stability of the dollar and increased interest in government bonds and gold, indicating investor caution in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Stock indices, in turn, reflected mixed sentiments resulting from various market factors. Future directions will largely depend on upcoming economic data and political decisions from key central banks, which may significantly influence investor expectations and market direction. It is worth monitoring these indicators to better understand potential changes in the future.

In the past week, we observed several significant changes in the financial markets and the emergence of trends that may influence future investor decisions. First and foremost, it is worth noting the dynamics in the technology sector, which recorded significant movements, consequently affecting the overall sentiment in the stock markets.

The first key takeaway is the growing interest of investors in companies from the technology sector, driven by the publication of quarterly results from several leading players in this market. As a result, the shares of these companies gained in value, leading to increases in technology indices. Investors are eagerly awaiting further earnings reports that may continue to drive this sector.

Another important aspect is the situation in the commodities market, where an increase in volatility was observed. Energy commodity prices fluctuated, influenced by both geopolitical factors and macroeconomic data. In the context of rising international tensions, investors should pay particular attention to potential changes in this area in the coming weeks, as they may impact production costs and the overall economy.

An important event was also the inflation report, which indicated that inflationary pressure has somewhat decreased, although it remains at an elevated level. This information affected expectations regarding further actions by central banks in terms of monetary policy. Investors will closely monitor future inflation data to assess whether current trends will persist, which in turn may influence decisions regarding interest rates.

In the context of currencies, the forex market also recorded some changes. It is worth noting the strengthening of certain currencies against the US dollar, which was a reaction to macroeconomic data and changes in the monetary policy of other countries. Currency investors will need to track further actions by central banks, especially in the context of global economic prospects.

In summary, the past week brought several significant changes in the financial markets that may have long-term consequences. Investors should remain vigilant regarding upcoming economic data and corporate reports that may influence future investment directions. Particular attention should be paid to the technology sector, the commodities market, and the situation in the currency market, as these areas may play a key role in shaping future trends.