Today in the financial markets marks the culmination of weekly tensions and anticipation for key data from the U.S. labor market, which will be released at 14:30 (Warsaw time). We are expecting three significant reports: the unemployment rate, which is expected to remain at 4.4%, average hourly earnings with a forecast increase of 0.3%, and non-farm payrolls, where forecasts indicate an increase of 65,000 jobs, representing a significant rebound after the previous decline of 92,000. These data will be the focal point of today's session, and their results could significantly impact investor sentiment.
In the context of this week, we see ongoing extreme fear in the markets, reflected in the low level of the Fear & Greed Index, which stands at 15/100. The remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, along with better-than-expected retail sales and ADP data, have not fully changed this sentiment. Despite positive signals from the economies of Canada and the USA, investors remain cautious, awaiting more definitive evidence of labor market stabilization.
For traders, the most important takeaway for today's session is to prepare for high volatility, especially around 14:30 (Warsaw time), as the results of the U.S. labor market reports could surprise both to the upside and downside. A better-than-expected result could alleviate recession fears, while weaker data may deepen the current market pessimism. It will also be crucial to monitor the reaction of the U.S. dollar and stock indices, which may be particularly sensitive to today's releases.
