Thursday brings key macroeconomic data from the United States to the financial markets, which may influence further movements by investors. At 12:30 (Warsaw time), we expect the release of preliminary GDP data for the first quarter, with forecasts indicating a growth of 2.0% on a quarterly basis, representing a significant increase compared to the previous reading of 0.7%. At the same time, we will also learn the Core PCE Price Index, which is a key inflation measure for the Federal Reserve, with forecasts suggesting stability at 0.3% month-over-month. This data may provide new insights into the direction of monetary policy ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting.
In the context of this week, markets have already reacted to the inflation data from Australia, which turned out to be lower than expected, reducing the pressure for interest rate hikes in the region. Meanwhile, global market sentiment remains in the 'greed' zone, suggesting that investors are still willing to take risks, despite the lack of significant data in the first half of the week. However, today's releases from the USA could quickly change this picture, especially if the results deviate significantly from forecasts.
Traders should pay particular attention to the publication at 12:30 (Warsaw time) today, as the GDP data and Core PCE may significantly impact market volatility. In the case of a surprisingly high GDP reading, we can expect gains in the stock market, while a higher-than-expected inflation rate could increase pressure on bond yields. Therefore, it is important to be prepared for a swift market reaction, especially in the context of the upcoming FOMC meeting and expectations regarding interest rates.
