Geopolitical issues and interest rates at the forefront of the markets.

Latest reports from Iran indicate progress in talks regarding an agreement with the USA. Iran's Foreign Minister, Araghchi, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the pre-war period, which may have significant consequences for the global oil market. The United Arab Emirates plans to unblock billions of dollars for Iran, which could contribute to stabilizing the Iranian economy. Despite this, some hardliners in Iran have expressed opposition to the deal, indicating internal tensions. Meanwhile, the high probability of signing a USA-Iran agreement, estimated at 80-85%, could bring benefits in the form of unblocking assets and transferring enriched material, which may alleviate uncertainty in the region.

Market expectations indicate stability in Fed interest rates at 3.50-3.75% during the upcoming FOMC meeting, which will take place on June 17. Only 3.6% of market participants expect a rate cut to 3.25-3.50%, while no one anticipates a hike to 3.75-4.00%. The Fear & Greed Index indicates a level of 34/100, which means that fear dominates the market; however, expectations regarding the maintenance of interest rates may provide relief to investors. Stability in interest rates is crucial in the context of geopolitical uncertainty and potential impacts on inflation and economic growth.

Tomorrow, investors should pay special attention to further reports regarding the USA-Iran agreement and its potential impact on commodity markets and geopolitical stability. Additionally, the coming days will bring expectations regarding the Fed's decision, which may influence market sentiment and the direction in which the main stock indices will move.