Key geopolitical events and central bank decisions attract investors' attention.
The current Fed interest rate is 3.50-3.75%, and the next FOMC meeting will take place on June 17 (Warsaw time). The markets currently almost unanimously expect that interest rates will remain at the same level, with a probability of 98.2%. However, the sentiment of investors has changed, as they had recently considered the possibility of further interest rate hikes this year. The change in expectations may be the result of recent economic data and uncertainty related to geopolitics. For the markets, it will be crucial whether the Fed confirms these expectations, which may affect the further valuation of assets, especially in the bond market.
Today's news has been dominated by reports of a possible agreement between the USA and Iran. Former US President Donald Trump announced that a great agreement regarding the war with Iran has been reached, which could be signed as early as this coming weekend. The signing of the agreement would likely take place in Europe. A potential agreement could bring economic benefits, easing tensions in the Middle East and stabilizing energy markets. Furthermore, a meeting between the UAE and Iran suggests that the region may be heading towards greater stability, which would also be positively received by investors.
Deciders of the European Central Bank are considering the possibility of pausing further actions in July, provided that energy prices remain at their current level. This is key information in the context of the monetary policy of the eurozone, which is facing inflationary issues. Energy prices have a direct impact on inflation, and their stability could allow the ECB to maintain the current policy without additional interventions. Markets will therefore closely monitor data on inflation and energy commodity prices, which may influence ECB decisions.
The World Bank has published economic growth forecasts for the USA and China for the year 2026. The US GDP is expected to grow by 2.2%, which is in line with previous predictions and slightly higher than the 2.1% forecasted for 2025. In the case of China, the projected growth for 2026 is 4.2%, which is a slightly lower forecast compared to January's 4.4%. Such data suggests that the global economy may be heading towards moderate growth, which could influence investment decisions worldwide.
Tomorrow will bring a continuation of the tension surrounding the US-Iran negotiations and further expectations for decisions from central banks. Investors should pay particular attention to signals from the Fed regarding future monetary policy and any new information regarding the agreement with Iran that may affect market stabilization.
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations is a report presenting consumer inflation expectations in the USA. High inflation expectations may suggest pressure for interest rate hikes, which impacts financial markets. Changes in these expectations can significantly influence investment decisions and monetary ...
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is an indicator of consumer sentiment that measures the overall attitude of households in the USA. A high reading suggests consumer optimism, which can support spending and economic growth. Changes in this indicator can influence investment decisions and monetary policy...
The m/m GDP report measures changes in the value of all goods and services produced in the economy. It is a key indicator of economic health that influences investment decisions and monetary policy. An increase in GDP suggests expansion, while a decrease may indicate a recession. **Watchlist:** DXY...
Today, key data on economic growth from the United Kingdom will be crucial, as it may impact the pound's exchange rate and the overall condition of European markets. Combined with recent inflation data from the USA and ECB decisions, today's results could provide new insights into future movements...
