Markets in fear despite stable interest rates

The current Fed interest rate is 3.50-3.75%, and expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for March 18 suggest that it will remain unchanged. Despite this, traders are beginning to speculate about a potential rate cut by September, which may be a reaction to mixed economic data from the USA. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) stood at 6.946 million, exceeding forecasts, indicating a still strong labor market. Meanwhile, the Core PCE Price Index rose to 3.1%, in line with expectations, which may influence the Fed's decisions regarding inflation.

Saudi Arabia announced cuts in oil production by at least 2 million barrels per day, which reduced total production to around 8 million barrels per day. This reduction is a response to decreased global demand and rising inventories. Additionally, Iran granted permission to India for two tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which may alleviate concerns about disruptions in energy supplies. France and Italy have begun talks with Iran to ensure safe flows through this strategic route.

The Canadian labor market recorded a significant decline in employment, with a reading of -83.9 thousand jobs, while forecasts indicated an increase of 10 thousand. This is a worrying signal for the Canadian economy and may indicate the need for a revision of monetary policy by the Bank of Canada. Such a large decline may also impact the value of the Canadian dollar, which may weaken against the US dollar, especially in the context of the projected stabilization of interest rates in the USA.

JPMorgan has adopted a bullish stance on the US dollar for the first time in a year. The bank sees potential for the dollar's value to increase, which may be related to expectations of stabilization in interest rates in the US and relatively strong economic data. Such a change could attract investors to American assets, especially in the context of uncertainty in international markets.

Tomorrow will bring further anticipation for signals from the Fed regarding future decisions on monetary policy. Investors should pay attention to the upcoming macroeconomic data from the USA and the development of the geopolitical situation, especially in the context of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. An important event will also be any changes in the energy policy of major producers, such as Saudi Arabia.