Uncertainty in the markets: geopolitics and macroeconomic data under scrutiny

In recent hours, the geopolitical situation has escalated due to rising tensions between the USA and Iran. Former US President Donald Trump called for a response to Iran's attack, which heated the atmosphere in the markets. At the same time, Al-Arabiya TV reported positive news about progress in talks aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. These conflicting signals are affecting investor uncertainty, which is reflected in the drop of the Fear & Greed Index to a level of 31/100, indicating clear fear in the market. Such uncertainty may lead to increased volatility in the financial markets.

Today's publication of macroeconomic data brought mixed signals. In the USA, existing home sales increased to 4.17 million, exceeding forecasts of 4.07 million. Meanwhile, the US trade balance improved to -55.9 billion USD, which is a better result than the expected -56.1 billion USD. Good data may support expectations that the Fed will not change current interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting. In Europe, German industrial production rose by 0.4% month-on-month, which is in line with forecasts; however, year-on-year it still remains in the negative, although better than expected. This data is significant for assessing the condition of the European economy and influences investors' decisions regarding capital allocation.

Taiwan is considering restrictions on the export of AI chips to China, which is a step aimed at aligning with US policy. Such actions could impact the global supply chain of technology, especially in the semiconductor sector, which is crucial for many industries. Restrictions may lead to an increase in the prices of these components, which in turn will affect production costs across various sectors, from automotive to consumer electronics. This is also another element in the complicated geopolitical puzzle, where technologies are becoming instruments in international politics.

Tomorrow may bring further information regarding the USA-Iran negotiations, which could have a significant impact on the markets. Investors will also closely watch the upcoming macroeconomic data releases and any signals regarding the Fed's monetary policy ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting. It will also be important to monitor the situation in the technology sector, especially in the context of USA-China relations.