ICT Daily Bias Determination 2026 — How to Predict Daily Direction

Step 1 — Higher Timeframe Trend: open Daily and Weekly charts. Identify if instrument is in uptrend (HH/HL), downtrend (LH/LL), or ranging. Bullish daily bias requires Daily TF showing uptrend or potential reversal from key level. Step 2 — PD Array (Premium/Discount Array): draw Fib retracement on weekly range (high to low). 50% Fib = midpoint. Above 50% = premium zone (smart money sells). Below 50% = discount zone (smart money buys). If price in discount → bullish bias more likely. If premium → bearish more likely. Step 3 — Weekly Profile: ICT methodology identifies common weekly patterns: Classic Buy Day Tuesday, Reversal Wednesday, Continuation Thursday, Reversal Friday. Knowing where you are in week influences daily bias. Monday often = reversal of prior week's last move; Tuesday = trend establishment; Wed-Thu = trend continuation; Friday = reversal/profit taking.

Step 4 — Draw on Liquidity: identify nearest liquidity pools price will likely "draw" toward. Sources: PWH (previous week high), PWL (previous week low), PMH (previous month high), PML (previous month low), session highs/lows, equal highs/lows (resting liquidity). If price below PWH and trend bullish → daily bias = bullish, target PWH. If price above PWL and trend bearish → daily bias = bearish, target PWL. Step 5 — Macro Context: check broader environment. (a) DXY (dollar index) direction — DXY up = USD strength = EURUSD bearish, USDJPY bullish. (b) Risk-on/off sentiment — risk-on = NAS100/SPX bullish, JPY weakness, gold mixed; risk-off = USD/JPY/CHF strength, gold strength, equities weakness. (c) Economic calendar — major news (FOMC, NFP, CPI) can override structure. Check 24h forward calendar before setting bias.

Step 6 — Asian Range Close: where did Asian session (17:00-23:00 ET prev day) close relative to ARH/ARL? Closing near ARL often signals bullish bias forming (sellers exhausted in accumulation, buyers ready). Closing near ARH = bearish bias forming. Closing in middle = unclear, lower confidence. Step 7 — Take Profit AI Bias Confirmation: open Take Profit AI and check directional signal for the instrument. AI uses ML models trained on price action + sentiment + news. If AI bias agrees with steps 1-6 manual analysis → high-confidence daily bias confirmed. If AI disagrees → either your manual analysis missed something, or it's a low-conviction day — trade smaller or skip. Multi-source confluence scoring: count how many of 7 steps point same direction. 6-7 aligned = high confidence (75-85% bias accuracy). 4-5 = medium confidence. 3 or fewer = skip the day.

Tuesday, EURUSD analysis: Step 1 — Daily uptrend confirmed, HH/HL pattern past 5 days. ✓ bullish. Step 2 — Price at 1.0855, weekly range 1.0820-1.0890, 50% midpoint 1.0855 — neutral, slight discount. Slight bullish lean. Step 3 — Tuesday = classic Buy Day, trend establishment. ✓ bullish. Step 4 — Nearest liquidity: PWH at 1.0890, PDH at 1.0875. Price 35 pips below PWH = clear draw upward target. ✓ bullish. Step 5 — DXY weakening (-0.3% overnight), risk-on equities up, NFP next Friday (no news today). ✓ bullish. Step 6 — Asian Range 1.0840-1.0865, closed at 1.0842 (near ARL). ✓ bullish (sellers exhausted in Asian, buyers ready for London). Step 7 — Take Profit AI bias: BULLISH on EURUSD. ✓ bullish. Score: 7/7 aligned bullish. Daily bias: HIGH CONFIDENCE BULLISH. Plan: take long setups (Silver Bullet bullish, OTE bullish, Judas Swing reversal up). Avoid shorts. Position sizing: standard 1-1.5% per trade.

Error 1: Trading single-factor bias. "Daily TF is uptrend so today is bullish" — ignores PD Array position, weekly profile, macro. Always require 5+ aligned factors. Error 2: Ignoring DXY. EURUSD/GBPUSD/JPY pairs strongly inverse-correlated to DXY. If DXY ripping bullish, EURUSD probably won't make new highs even with everything else bullish. Error 3: Forcing bias on news days. FOMC/CPI/NFP can completely override structure. Wait until news is released and price reacts before setting bias. Error 4: Using only Daily TF without Weekly. A bullish Daily inside a bearish Weekly correction is dangerous — weekly bias dominates over multi-week swings. Error 5: Cherry-picking AI bias. Only use Take Profit AI when its bias agrees with everything else — using AI alone vs everything else = ignoring confluence. Error 6: Not journaling bias accuracy. Track 30 days of bias predictions vs actual — identifies your weak filtering steps.

Daily routine for ICT bias determination: 22:00 ET previous evening (15:00 PL time, end of polish workday): Run through 7-step framework on EURUSD, GBPUSD, NAS100, XAUUSD. Document conclusions in journal. 05:00 ET morning: Re-verify. Asian session close + overnight news. 07:00 ET: Check Take Profit AI one more time before NY AM Kill Zone. 08:00 ET: NY pre-market — execute setups aligned with bias on Vantage MT5. Vantage advantages for ICT bias trading: TradingView Web Trader integration ideal for visual PD Array drawing + draw on liquidity marking. RAW account ($6 round-turn commission, 0.10 pip raw spread) keeps cost low for tight ICT setups (Silver Bullet 1:2, Judas 1:1.5, OTE 1:1.7). 150% First-Time Deposit bonus boosts capital — $5k → $12,500 effective for larger position sizes on high-confluence bias days.