Friday the 13th: Superstitions vs. Reality

Friday, March 13, 2026, in the financial markets is shaping up to be a day full of emotions and challenges, despite no significant macroeconomic data being released by 6:00 (Warsaw time). Investors are eagerly awaiting a series of key publications that could impact market volatility and shape short-term trends. Particular attention is drawn to data regarding economic growth in the United Kingdom, core inflation in the United States, and the labor market in Canada.

At 8:00 (Warsaw time), investors' eyes will turn to the United Kingdom, where data on monthly GDP growth will be published. Analysts' forecasts indicate a growth of 0.2%, which would represent an improvement compared to the previous month, when a growth of 0.1% was recorded. Although growth at this level is not impressive, any positive change could signal stabilization in the British economy, which is struggling with challenges related to Brexit and tensions in international markets. A result in line with forecasts could sustain investor optimism and support the pound's exchange rate.

Another key moment of the day will be the publications at 13:30 (Warsaw time), when attention will shift to the North American market. In the United States, the Core PCE Price Index will be released, which is one of the favorite inflation indicators of the American Federal Reserve. A projected monthly increase of 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, could confirm that inflationary pressure remains stable. Such a result could influence expectations regarding future Fed decisions on interest rates, which is crucial for financial markets.

At the same time, data from the Canadian labor market will also be published. The unemployment rate is projected to be at 6.6%, which would indicate a slight increase compared to the previous month, when it was 6.5%. Meanwhile, the change in employment is projected to be at 10.3 thousand new jobs, which would represent a significant improvement after a decline of 24.8 thousand in the previous month. This data will be important for investors tracking the Canadian dollar, especially in the context of the Bank of Canada's monetary policy.

At the same time, data regarding U.S. GDP for the first quarter of 2026 will also be announced. Forecasts indicate a growth of 1.4% on a quarterly basis, which is consistent with the previous reading. Stable growth data could support positive sentiment on Wall Street, especially in light of concerns about a global economic slowdown.

Finally, at 15:00 (Warsaw time), the JOLTS report on job openings in the United States will be published. The projected number of job openings is 6.76 million, which indicates an increase compared to the previous month when this number was 6.54 million. This data is closely monitored by analysts, as it could shed light on the condition of the U.S. labor market, thereby influencing expectations regarding future Fed decisions.

In summary, Friday, March 13, 2026, promises to be a day full of key publications that could significantly impact financial markets. Investors will be particularly attentive to data regarding economic growth, inflation, and the labor market, which could influence the volatility of major currency pairs, stock indices, and commodities. In light of so many significant publications, market sentiment may be dynamic, and investors should prepare for potential changes in their investment strategies.

In the last 30 days, global financial markets have experienced a series of significant macroeconomic events that have influenced current expectations regarding the economy and monetary policy. In particular, data related to inflation, employment, and central bank policies are key factors shaping the current climate in the markets.

Let's start with the United States, where inflation seems to be under control. Recent data on the CPI index for February showed an increase of 0.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y, which is in line with analysts' expectations. Similarly, the Core CPI index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% m/m, also in accordance with forecasts. The stability of inflation in the USA suggests that price pressures are not high enough to require an immediate response from the Federal Reserve. However, in the context of the labor market, the situation becomes more complex. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from the previous 4.3%, and the change in non-farm employment amounted to -92 thousand, which significantly deviates from the projected increase of 58 thousand. This indicates some slowdown in the labor market, which may influence future Fed decisions regarding interest rate policy.

At the same time, the labor market in Canada is also showing signs of weakening. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 6.5% to 6.6%, and the change in employment is expected to improve, though from a level of -24.8 thousand to a projected increase of 10.3 thousand. This data suggests that the Canadian labor market is facing challenges that may impact the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada.

In the United Kingdom, attention is focused on data regarding economic growth. GDP growth is expected to be 0.2% month-on-month, which is an improvement compared to the previous month when growth was only 0.1%. Although this is a positive signal, it still indicates a moderate pace of economic development, which may pose a challenge for the Bank of England in the context of potential tightening of monetary policy.

In the context of expectations regarding interest rates in the USA, the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 18, 2026. The current Fed interest rate is 3.50-3.75%, and the probability of maintaining it at this level is as high as 99.1%. This suggests that no changes in interest rate policy are expected in the near future, which may be a result of stable inflation data and concerning signals from the labor market.

Currently, there is a mood of extreme fear in the financial markets, as reflected by the Fear & Greed Index at 21/100. This index has dropped from 28/100 a week ago and 38/100 a month ago, indicating increasing caution among investors. The decline of 7 points over the month shows that market participants are becoming more concerned about potential threats to the global economy, which may lead to greater volatility in financial markets.

In summary, the current macroeconomic situation is characterized by stable inflation in the United States, but challenges in the labor market in both the USA and Canada. Expectations regarding interest rates remain stable, although uncertainty about the future developments in labor markets may influence central bank decisions. In the United Kingdom, the moderate pace of economic growth indicates a need for caution in making decisions regarding monetary policy. All of this occurs in the context of increasing uncertainty and caution among investors, which may affect future movements in financial markets.

Today's day on the financial markets promises to be interesting due to several key macroeconomic reports that may influence investor decisions and volatility in the currency and commodity markets. Below is a detailed analysis of each of the upcoming reports.

The first significant report to be published at 08:00 (Warsaw time) is the UK GDP m/m (Gross Domestic Product m/m). Gross Domestic Product is a fundamental measure of economic activity and the economic health of a country. This indicator shows how the value of all goods and services produced in the UK changes compared to the previous month. The forecast for this month is 0.2%, which represents an increase compared to the previous reading of 0.1%. If the actual result matches or exceeds the forecast, it may indicate an improvement in the condition of the UK economy, which could strengthen the British pound. Conversely, a result lower than the forecast could weaken GBP, suggesting an economic slowdown.

At 13:30 (Warsaw time), the US Core PCE Price Index m/m will be published. This is a key inflation indicator that measures changes in the prices of consumer goods and services, excluding food and energy, which are more volatile. The forecast is 0.4%, which is in line with the previous reading. This is an indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve for making monetary policy decisions. If inflation is higher than expected, it may increase expectations for a tightening of monetary policy by the Fed, which could strengthen the US dollar. Conversely, lower inflation could suggest a more dovish policy and weaken the dollar.

Simultaneously at 13:30 (Warsaw time), two important reports regarding the labor market in Canada will be published. The first is the Unemployment Rate, with a forecast of 6.6%, which represents an increase compared to the previous value of 6.5%. An increase in the unemployment rate may suggest a weakening labor market, which could negatively impact the Canadian dollar. The second report is the Employment Change, for which the forecast is 10.3 thousand new jobs, representing a significant improvement compared to the previous negative result of -24.8 thousand. A positive result may offset the negative impact of the rising unemployment rate and potentially support the Canadian dollar.

Another report at 13:30 (Warsaw time) is the preliminary GDP q/q for the United States. The forecast is 1.4%, which is in line with the previous reading. GDP is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators that shows the pace of economic growth. Stable growth at the forecast level may be perceived as a positive signal for the dollar, suggesting a healthy economy. However, any result deviating from the forecast may influence investor expectations regarding future Fed actions.

The last significant report of the day, published at 15:00 (Warsaw time), is the JOLTS Job Openings in the US, with a forecast of 6.76 million, which represents an increase compared to the previous reading of 6.54 million. The number of job openings is an indicator of demand for workers and may suggest how dynamic the labor market is. An increase in job openings may be seen as a positive signal for the economy, suggesting an increase in employment and potentially supporting the US dollar.

In summary, today's reports may have a significant impact on the currency market, particularly on the GBP/USD and USD/CAD pairs. Investors should pay particular attention to the report results in the context of market expectations, which may lead to increased volatility depending on whether the results align with forecasts or deviate from them.

SCENARIOS FOR TODAY

Today's analysis will focus on three potential market scenarios that may occur depending on the publication of new macroeconomic data. We will discuss possible reactions in the currency, stock, and gold markets.

Bullish Scenario: Data Better Than Forecasts

If today's data turns out to be better than analysts' expectations, we can expect a bullish scenario, which usually strengthens the position of the US dollar (USD). Higher than predicted macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP growth, lower unemployment, or higher inflation, may suggest that the US economy is stronger than forecasted. In such conditions, investors may react with an increased willingness to buy USD, leading to its strengthening in the currency market.

In the stock market, better macroeconomic data may increase investor confidence in the stability of the economy. This could result in a rise in stock indices, as investors will be more inclined to invest in stocks, hoping for further economic development and growth in corporate profits. Companies in the consumer and technology sectors may particularly benefit from this situation.

As for gold, in a bullish scenario, its price is likely to decrease. Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe haven in times of economic uncertainty, so in the face of positive macroeconomic data and an increase in USD value, investors may be less inclined to hold this metal, which could lead to its depreciation.

Base Scenario: Data in Line with Forecasts

In the event that the published data is in line with forecasts, we can expect a base scenario. In this case, the market reaction may be muted, as alignment with expectations does not provide new impulses for changing investment strategies.

In the currency market, USD may maintain relative stability. Investors, seeing a lack of surprises, may continue their existing strategies, which should not significantly affect exchange rates.

Stock indices may not show large fluctuations with data in line with forecasts, as the market typically already incorporates these expectations into stock prices. In such conditions, investors may focus on long-term strategies, and market volatility may be limited.

Gold may also not experience significant price movements, remaining within the range of previous levels. In the absence of surprising data, investors may not see the need to change their exposure to this precious metal.

Bearish Scenario: Data Worse Than Forecasts

If the data turns out to be worse than expected, we may be facing a bearish scenario. In this case, USD may weaken, especially if the data indicates problems in the economy, such as lower than expected economic growth, higher unemployment, or lower inflation. Weaker data may prompt investors to anticipate a more dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which could lead to the depreciation of the dollar.

In the stock market, worse data may trigger declines, as investors may be concerned about the future of corporate profits and economic stability. Cyclical sectors, such as industrial and financial, may be particularly vulnerable to declines.

Gold in a bearish scenario may gain in value. Investors, seeking safer assets, may turn to gold as a hedge against uncertainty and potential declines in the stock and currency markets. This could lead to increased demand and rising prices for the metal.

In the analyzed week, global financial markets did not witness high-impact events, meaning there were no publications of macroeconomic data or central bank decisions that could significantly affect market volatility. Such a situation creates a specific environment for traders that is worth discussing in terms of potential risks and opportunities.

The lack of key macroeconomic events means that markets may be more susceptible to technical factors and local events. During such periods, there is often an increase in the importance of technical analysis, as the absence of fundamental news causes investors to focus more on charts, technical indicators, and price formations. This presents an opportunity for traders who specialize in this area of analysis, as they can leverage their skills to identify short-term trends and turning points.

However, the lack of high-impact data also carries certain risks. During such periods, markets may become more prone to speculation and rumors, which can lead to unexpected price movements. Traders should therefore be particularly vigilant and avoid overcommitting capital to positions that are not supported by solid analyses. It is also important to monitor geopolitical events and corporate news that may locally influence volatility.

For traders operating in the currency market, the lack of high-impact data means it is worth paying attention to currency pairs that may be more active due to local events. For example, the publication of smaller economic indicators or speeches by central bank members can trigger movements in a given currency, even if they are not global events.

In summary, in a week without high-impact events, traders should focus on technical analysis, monitor local news, and manage risk cautiously. Utilizing short-term strategies may prove beneficial; however, one must remember the potential unexpected market movements caused by speculation. Maintaining flexibility and continuously adapting to changing market conditions remains key to success during such periods.