The escalating tensions in the Middle East and speculation regarding Fed policy are affecting investor sentiment.
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The situation in the Middle East has further escalated, affecting global markets. The United States is sending three warships to the region in response to rising tensions with Iran. CBS reports that the US is preparing for the possible deployment of ground troops in Iran, which further increases uncertainty. Iran, in turn, expresses reluctance to engage in any negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which, in the event of a conflict escalation, could lead to disruptions in global oil supplies. These actions may impact commodity prices, particularly oil, and investor sentiment towards safe assets.
Investors are eagerly awaiting the next moves of the Federal Reserve, especially in the context of geopolitical tensions. The current Fed rate is 3.50-3.75%, and the majority of analysts (89.7%) expect it to remain at this level after the upcoming FOMC meeting. However, there are speculations in the market regarding potential interest rate hikes by the end of the year, with a 50% probability of an increase by October. Such expectations may influence investment decisions and volatility in the financial markets.
Canada has published the latest retail sales data, which showed an increase of 1.1% month-on-month, which is below expectations of 1.5%. Nevertheless, this is an improvement compared to the previous month when sales fell by 0.4%. This data may influence expectations regarding the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada and investors' decisions related to Canadian assets.
Tomorrow is worth watching for further market reactions to geopolitical tensions, especially in the context of the Middle East. Investors will also be monitoring any new hints regarding future actions of the Federal Reserve, as they may significantly impact market expectations and sentiments.
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