Geopolitical tensions and monetary uncertainty dominate the markets.

The current monetary policy of the Fed remains in the spotlight for investors. The current Fed interest rate is 3.50-3.75%, and the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for April 29, 2026. Among market participants, there is a prevailing belief that rates will remain unchanged, which is reflected in a 95.9% probability of maintaining current levels. Only 4.1% of investors expect a hike to the range of 3.75-4.00%. The stability of interest rates is crucial for financial markets, especially in light of current geopolitical tensions that increase uncertainty and may affect fluctuations in the markets.

The situation in the Middle East remains tense. The United States signals no immediate plans for an invasion of Iran, despite ongoing talks with Tehran. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reports that he expects a response from Iran in the coming days, which may influence the further development of the situation. Additionally, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has closed the Strait of Hormuz, which could have serious implications for the global oil market. Such actions may lead to rising commodity prices and increase uncertainty among investors, as seen in the extreme fear measured by the Fear & Greed Index.

Data on retail sales in the United Kingdom may somewhat alleviate concerns regarding the economy of this country. The Core Retail Sales month-on-month decreased by 0.4%, which is a better result than the forecasted decline of 1%, but worse compared to the previous increase of 2.0%. Although this data is less significant against the backdrop of global tensions, it indicates certain challenges facing the British economy in the context of the unstable situation in Europe and the world.

Investors should monitor the developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly in the context of Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which may affect oil prices and increase market volatility. Additionally, the upcoming FOMC meeting will be a key event for financial markets, which may react to any changes in U.S. monetary policy. It is also worth paying attention to the upcoming macroeconomic data that may provide insights into the condition of the global economy.